Ursula von der Leyen formalizes her candidacy for a second term as head of the European Commission

Correspondent in Brussels

After months of true-false suspense, Ursula von der Leyen, 65, is now officially a candidate for a second term as head of the commission. She made the announcement this Monday during a meeting of the CDU in Berlin, of which she is a member. And this huge German center-right party, which had surely been waiting for his candidacy, immediately gave him its blessing.

This dubbing is only the first step in a long and well-defined process. Then comes the EPP Congress in Bucharest on March 6 and 7, during which the commission president will be formally appointed the leader of the European right – the Spitzenkandidate – for the June elections. Formality knowing that there is not the slightest rival facing “VDL” in the EPP. The Commission’s outgoing president, that is, people have been saying in Brussels for months, “ A natural candidate » For his own succession. If the EPP comes out on top in the polls as predicted, he will be the future president of the Commission. At least one has the best chance of becoming one, knowing that the Twenty-Seven will have to come to an agreement after the European elections, before the European Parliament can validate their choice by a majority vote.

A natural candidate

Suffice it to say that things were much easier for the former German defense minister in 2019, when she was chosen at the last moment and was not even a candidate. The name of Angela Merkel’s protégé was proposed by Emmanuel Macron and approved by his counterparts – twenty-seven then successively “beat” the German Manfred Weber and the Dutch Frans Timmermans – respectively the Spitzenkandidate of the EPP and the European Social-Democratic family. . A system was then widely criticized by the European Parliament which felt that the elections had been stolen by the twenty-seven. If “VDL” has no choice but to follow the rules this time, it does not follow logic to its logical conclusion. Indeed, he will not formally be a candidate on the CDU list. ” She should really contest these elections. But his name will not be anywhere in the German list », laments German ecologist Daniel Freund.

Resignation. It will pile up again for nothing better

European source

As for the Heads of State and Government, their extension for another five years in the Commission should be passed. Certainly his appointment is part of a wider process of top jobs. Leaders will not only have to agree on this position but they will also have to choose the next president of the European Council, the future High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs. And every leader who is a member of the main EU parties – EPP, S&D and Renew – will claim their share of the pie. In the event of an impasse, Twenty-Seven can therefore, like in 2019, pull another candidate out of their hat. The names of ECB president Christine Lagarde and former Italian council president Mario Draghi have also floated in recent weeks. But this is not the most likely scenario. The EPP, which has 12 leaders at the European Council table, will weigh it with all its weight and the vote, moreover, is by a qualified majority. Given the multiple crises the EU faces, leaders may prefer to opt for stability by renewing the “VDL”. “ Resignation. It will pile up again for nothing better », commented a senior European official.

The former defense minister was however faced with extraordinary and unprecedented crises like Covid and then the war in Ukraine. Even when she made damaging mistakes or miscommunications, this accomplished rider always knew how to let the storm pass and get back in the saddle without losing her steady smile. This was the case in early 2021, when leaders frustrated with vaccines not arriving asked EU ambassadors and Commissioner Thierry Breton to regain control of the matter. This was also the case when the Commission proposed to put the border back around Ireland in the difficult Brexit issue. Or even more recently, in October 2023, when the VDL went to Israel and had not a word for the dead in Gaza, forgetting, as an EU diplomat points out, that she ” Not Germany but Europe “

Very lonely and steep

Leaders may also criticize them for being too solitary and vertical. At the end of November, a European diplomat put his foot down, as if it had been acquired, in reference to the kick-off of Ukraine’s EU accession talks and the 50 billion euro support given to Kyiv by “VDL”. ” If I were him, I’d be going underwater right now. by saying “I have decided”, Surprise people “Why her?” The question is the distribution of power “

If not completely forgotten, these road trips are put into the background. “VDL” is backed by German Olaf Scholz. And it seems, at this stage, Emmanuel Macron has, who nevertheless holds his cards in his hand. President to “VDL” in Paris on February 13 An in-depth discussion ” Upon their arrival, the President walked down the steps of the Elysée to greet them. The two then posed all smiles for photographers.” Regarding the communication performance, I don’t have the impression that there is anything negative about it. This staging was not mandatory », analyzes the European interlocutor. The current president of the commission has increased the number of trips with leaders in recent months, notably Italian Giorgia Maloney and Spaniard Pedro Sánchez, whose support will be crucial. She also spent a few days with Greek Kyriakos Mitsotakis last summer. Suffice it to say that his decision was carefully considered, studied at length and prepared.

Apparently, “VDL” has also recently been preparing what could be a program for its next mandate. It will be very different from the first one. The Green Deal, which has raised hackles in many European capitals and citizens, will continue to be implemented but will no longer be the same place. On the other hand, security of the EU will be a central theme. While Europeans must urgently strengthen their military resources, she defended the creation of the defense commissioner’s post last weekend in Munich, at least in charge of defense industries. sending a signal in the direction of Paris that tirelessly urges the strengthening of the European defense industry. Union enlargement and internal reforms within the EU will also be among the priority issues of the next mandate.

Matters may be more complicated in the European Parliament. In an assembly where conservatives and the sovereign right should win a significant number of seats next June, a future majority – PPE, S&D and Renewal – will look to the outgoing president to ensure the support of MEPs. ” she will need, Johannes Lindner, director of the Center Jacques Delors think tank believes, A stable coalition with Parliament and it will move slightly to the right ” In 2019, she was narrowly elected, by just 9 votes. Members of her political family criticized her for being imposed by Twenty-Seven. This time she cannot stand trial.