Politics – In Search of Lost Billions. Bruno Le Maire and the entire executive have been called upon once again to explain the poor state of public finances and to find means to replenish the coffers after INSEE confirmed the slippage of the deficit on the year 2023.
A thorny debate for the government, as it hinges on questions of seriousness and competence. However, for the moment, finding a solution seems difficult. Gabriel Attal certainly spoke on TF1 television news. Bruno Le Maire received opposition at Bercy. But he is very smart who knows the executive’s strategy to get things on track.
Worse, some of the outputs or propositions put forward during the sequence may be errors… or even political errors, As you can see in our video at the top of the article.
An almost unprecedented slippage
Let’s first go back to the statistics of this financial explosion. In November, Bruno Le Maire was still counting on a deficit of 4.9% of GDP for the year 2023… a fact that he did not want to revise immediately, despite numerous more or less serious reservations.
Three months later (and an immediate economic plan together) the ax fell: INSEE announced on Tuesday 23 March that the deficit had finally reached 5.5% of GDP, an extraordinary gap of 0.6 points with the government’s objective. ” It is still a slip-up in implementation that is significant, not entirely unprecedented but very rare. » In the process explains the first president of the Court of Auditor Pierre Moscovici on France Inter.
Questionable arguments
Therefore, to justify this hole in the treasury, the tenant of Bursi puts forward some dubious or surprising arguments. The first is to emphasize that no one warned them of such a setback. “ I just remind you that our predictions were undoubtedly not good, but when they were made, no one, no one contradicted them. », whispered Bruno Le Maire in the Senate on Wednesday, causing the assembly to shake a bit.
The argument is indeed bold when we recall the terms of the 2024 budget scrutiny in the autumn. The government then used Article 49.3 in the Assembly to impose its text without debate, rejected several times by the Senate. Above all, at that time, parliamentarians missed no opportunity to criticize the directives of the administration.
“ The macroeconomic forecasts on which your government’s course is based seem too optimistic “For example, the rapporteur (LR) of the Finance Committee of the High Assembly Jean-Francois Husson estimated in Hemicycle on October 16, criticizing the strategy that “ All are based on a combination of favorable hypotheses “with some” Planets that will magically align. »
Opinion We also learned this Friday that the General Directorate of Treasury and Budget has warned Thomas Cazeneuve, Minister of Economy and Finance and Public Accounts, of a possible delicate slippage from December 7, 2023. We are talking about a note in which administrations actually explain the deficit “Could stand at 5.2% of GDP” And not 4.9%. On the other hand, they felt that it was not appropriate to communicate this new trend, which in their eyes was not unified.
Another argument presented by Bruno Le Maire since the INSEE publication relates to inflation. The Minister of Economy and Finance explains in essence that the reduction in the deficit is due to an unexpected slowdown in inflation and therefore income. Which, again, is surprising given Bercy’s tenant’s earlier pronouncements on the same subject. For example, it decided as early as last December that “ Inflation crisis “was” behind us », it seems expected – at least – that this slowdown in prices increases.
Changes in measures on unemployment insurance
So how do we compensate for that? Here comes the third fault. Among the main responses provided by the executive for the moment, we see the improvement of unemployment insurance (again). Aim: “Aim for Full Employment”In the words of Gabriel Attal on Wednesday on TF1, and so be able to count on more income.
issue? This proposal has a limited scope, as many economists and experts on the issue explain. Above all, it contradicts the executive’s recent promise to job seekers.
By reforming unemployment insurance in 2023, the government actually wanted an adaptive system. Strict rules when the job market is booming. More flexible rules when the market grows. ” The reform I’m advocating responds to a simple principle: when things are going well and many jobs are being created, regulations should be more encouraging. When things go wrong, the rules need to be more protective », explained Labor Minister Olivier Dussopt at the time.
However, for several months, the unemployment rate has increased. The government will not stop taking away the rights of the unemployed once again. Apparently, the calculations are not really good.
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