The rise of the dollar responds to inflationary pressures, the increase in central bank rates at the international level and the economic recession that some countries are already experiencing.
Photo: Getty Images/iStockphoto – Aslan Alphan
To understand the dollar rise throughout these years, it must be taken into account that its value is tied to a series of macroeconomic factors National and international. According to Google Finance, from 2018 to 2022, there have been three significant increases in the dollar in Colombia.
Read: Colombia vs. inflation: the black hole of price control.
Below is the behavior of the currency in the last five years, which this Friday, October 14, reached its all-time high: It rose more than $120 during the day, reaching levels of up to $4,707 for a few minutes and closed on $4,698.
In a first period, between 2018 and 2019, the dollar suffered a rise due to the trade war between the United States and China and the risk that this second country would go through a economic recession. He also discouraged the global tradethe fear of a brexit no agreement on the part of United Kingdom.
The unexpected result of Argentine presidential election on October 27, 2019 also influenced the rise in the colombian exchange rate. The victory of the Peronist Alberto Fernandez on former president Mauricio Macri, the Argentine debt collapsed, generating the appreciation of its currency.
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However, these international factors were not the only ones responsible for the rise in the currency, they were also the national ones, such as the lack of diversification of the Colombian export basketwhich was highly dependent on the energy mining salesfickle at international market fluctuations Y the decision of the Banco de la República not to invest in the exchange rate.
In the second period that covered all of 2020, the price of the dollar reached all-time highs After the impact of the coronavirus on international markets and the fear that the pandemic would generate a crisis due to its impact on production lines.
On the other hand, the drop in oil prices played a leading role in the behavior of the currency. By 2020, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), failed to convince Russia and Kazakhstan to reduce crude oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day to face the low prices that fell due to the same impact of the coronavirus.
After these two periods, a dollar uptrendwhich this Friday, October 14, reached a new all-time high by exceeding $4,700 and is expected to maintain this behavior due to uncertainty due to inflationary pressures, the increase in central bank rates at the international level and the economic recession due to which some countries are already experiencing.
Similarly, the last OPEC agreement to reduce its production by two million barrels of oil per day, the war between Ukraine and Russia and the increase in the price of raw materials exacerbate the phenomenon.
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