The Bitcoin price reached around USD 53,000 and then fell just under 19% to around USD 43,000 within a few hours. Was this crash predictable?
Review of the last Bitcoin price analysis August 13, 2021
Bitcoin’s weekly rate is currently very bullish. Since reaching the support at around USD 30,000 at the golden ratio, Bitcoin has now been able to rise sharply for three weeks in a row, even breaking the important Fibonacci resistance at USD 43,000. Bitcoin is currently on the way to the USD 52,000 mark at the golden ratio. And should this resistance be broken, Bitcoin’s trend is bullish again. Then it could even trump the all-time high at around USD 65,000 and rise to just under USD 88,000.
Of course, there is also the bearish scenario that Bitcoin is rejected at the important resistance at USD 52,000 and instead of initiating a bullish trend change, it continues its previous bear trend. The Bitcoin price would then find the next support at USD 43,000 and USD 30,000. At the latest at around USD 25,000 or USD 20,000, Bitcoin would meet with extremely strong support. However, given the current bullish development, it is very unlikely that Bitcoin will reach these low levels. It looks more like Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high this year!
Bitcoin price forecast August 13, 2021
The answer is yes. What does this mean for the Bitcoin course?
So far everything has gone according to plan: Bitcoin forms an all-time high at 65,000 USD, crashes to 30,000 USD, breaks the Fib level at 43,000 USD and thus reaches the possible turning point in the golden ratio at around 52,000 USD. Sometimes always emphasized, Bitcoin has to break this level sustainably in order to initiate a bullish trend change. If that doesn’t happen, the bear trend of Bitcoin will continue to pick up speed. Now the decisive factor is whether the support holds at USD 43,000 so that Bitcoin can try again to break the golden ratio at USD 52,000. Should this not happen, Bitcoin will only find strong support again at USD 30,000. In a very severe downtrend, it finds historical support between USD 13,500 and USD 20,000, which is very unlikely to be broken.
The bearish rejection confirms the bear trend
The rejection at this important Fibonacci level confirms the bear trend, but there are also bullish signals. The EMAs are still bullishly crossed in the daily rate and should the support hold at USD 43,000, a break of the golden ratio at USD 52,000 is close. The all-time high of USD 65,000 would be the next target for the Bitcoin price. At USD 37,000, the 50-week EMA support is waiting for the Bitcoin price, which could prevent it from falling to USD 30,000. If both levels are broken, however, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will fall back to historical support at the 200-week EMA at around USD 20,000.
Bitcoin’s monthly rate doesn’t look exactly bearish
At the moment, both scenarios are still open: Either Bitcoin breaks USD 52,000 and reaches USD 65,000 and thus possibly around USD 88,000, or it drops to USD 30,000 or USD 20,000. Should Bitcoin hold up above $ 43,000, the odds are pretty bullish. If it falls below that, then there is a high probability that USD 30,000 will be the next target price.
It remains to be seen whether the Bitcoin price will hold at USD 30,000 again. In fact, it could bounce off sharply there and then break USD 43,000 and USD 52,000 respectively to break out bullish. Overall, it is clear: Bitcoin is in a bear trend that has currently been confirmed. Still, it still has bullish opportunities, especially if it holds above $ 43,000.
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