Some Bitcoin indicators show similarities between the price history after the all-time high and the current trend. That suggests there will be one final push to the upside before a bigger decline occurs.
Is Bitcoin crashing brutally again?
As explained by a CryptoQuant analyst, there seem to be many similarities between post-all-time high (ATH) and now bitcoin indicators.
There are three main metrics that are important here. The first is the exchange reserve, which shows the amount of BTC currently held in central exchange wallets.
Here you can see how the value of this indicator has changed over the past year:
Looking at the graph above, there seems to be a similarity between the two periods. In both cases prices fell and foreign exchange reserves also fell.
Next up is the estimated leverage ratio. This is an indicator that shows how much leverage is used by traders on average. It is calculated by dividing the open interest by the foreign exchange reserves.
A similarity can also be seen here, as the indicator seems to have fallen sharply both in the present and in the period after the all-time high.
Finally, there is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which is calculated from the ratio between the realized value (in USD) and the value of creating an output.
Are investors selling Bitcoin at a loss?
Put simply, the indicator shows whether Bitcoin wallets are selling their coins at a profit or a loss. The chart below shows the trends for this metric.
It looks like the SOPR has fallen below 1 in both periods. Such a value suggests that investors have sold BTC at a loss (while values above 1 would mean the opposite).
If the current trend is really similar to the post-all-time high trend, which these indicators are suggesting, then BTC price could rise again soon and hit a local high. And just like last time, there could be a sharp drop after that, bringing the price down to a lower level. So this uptrend could turn out to be the final uptrend – at least for a while.
At the moment (time of this article) the Bitcoin price is hovering around $ 45.3k, which corresponds to a decrease of almost 10% in the last 7 days. In the past month, the cryptocurrency has lost 1% in value.
Here is a chart that shows the development of the Bitcoin price over the past three months:
Proof of text: Newsbtc
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