Two forecast models predict very different targets for the price development of Bitcoin (BTC) up to the end of the year, with a respected crypto expert clearly relying on the optimistic version of his model, which promises an upturn of over 100,000 US dollars.
PlanB, the inventor of the relevant Stock-To-Flow (S2F) calculation model, has it all in one Twitter post on Thursday expressed clear doubts about a new downtrend.
Will you be certain soon?
Since BTC / USD is currently at almost $ 49,000, PlanB is clearly on target with its daring forecast.
Rather, his prediction actually hits the bull’s eye at the current level, because the S2F model predicts a price of around 50,000 US dollars for August. If this accuracy can be maintained until the end of the year, Bitcoin would land at a staggering 135,000 US dollars.
According to S2F, the current price cycle for BTC, which runs over four years until the next Bitcoin halving, results in an average price of 100,000 US dollars. However, the market-leading cryptocurrency has been weakening noticeably since May, which is why the reliability of the previously so accurate model has been questioned.
However, the inventor PlanB does not deviate from his prognoses, because on the one hand these have not yet been refuted and on the other hand there are apparently no better alternatives.
An alternative model is the Diminishing Returns model from the Bitcointalk forum, which was designed in 2014.
In a revised version, a market value of only 30,000 US dollars is calculated for BTC / USD by the end of the year, which deviates significantly from the 100,000 US dollars of the S2F model.
“The next few months will be decisive,” as PlanB writes when comparing the two models.
Is the dual leadership coming?
As Cointelegraph reported, crypto analysts tend to be more cautious, at least for this week.
Since the US $ 50,000 mark still seems to be too high a hurdle, it is questionable whether the positive statements by the American central bank at a conference event can act as a sufficient catalyst.
Although Bitcoin has gained more than 60% since the interim low of $ 29,000, the psychologically important $ 50,000 mark is still out of reach, not to mention the new $ 64,500 record high from April.
Nonetheless, most experts are very confident in the medium term, because another record run in the current year is quite conceivable, because the constellation is currently similar to 2013, when there was the last such “double top”.