The work was published in the journal Wednesday, March 20 The Lancet Human fertility expected to decline faster than expected globally. Conducted by the international collaborative project Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the work concludes that around 2050, the average fertility index could be around 1.8 children per woman globally. or below the population renewal threshold.
An index that could drop to 1.6 children per woman by the end of the century, according to the work. By comparison, the latest United Nations estimates, released in 2022, project the average number of children per woman to be around 2.1 in 2050 and 1.8 in 2100.
The GBD was based on an analysis of global demographic evolution between 1950 and 2021, and modeled the evolution of fertility rates, country by country, until the end of the century. Over the past seventy years, the fertility rate has more than halved, from 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021.
birth discord
Above all, the researchers analyzed them by country: they expected a more or less general decline. Not only in the countries of the North, which are generally already below the replacement threshold – Western Europe, in 2021, about 1.5 children per woman (1.75 in France) – but also in the countries of the South, as the population is urbanising. , as women gain access to education and contraceptives, such as reduced infant mortality, etc. In 2021, about 46% of the 204 countries or territories that were below the renewal threshold; This proportion may increase to 76% in 2050 and 97% in 2100.
The authors anticipate birth rate divergence, with sub-Saharan Africa being the world’s only large dynamic region for much of the current century. “As human civilization faces the reality of low fertility, Researchers write, Relatively high rates in some low-income countries and regions will result in a clear demographic divide between a subset of low-income countries and the rest of the world. »
The researchers expect that by 2100 only Samoa, Somalia, the Tonga Islands, Niger, Chad and Tajikistan will be above the population renewal threshold. At the other end of the spectrum, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia could also see their fertility rates drop below one child per woman.
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