Eleven of the fourteen Russian drones were shot down by Kiev between Wednesday and Thursday night. A scenario that has been repeating itself for months. But when most of the devices launched against Ukraine have been destroyed before they could do any damage, why does the Russian military continue to send them? What is the strategy behind this relentlessness in Ukrainian skies? Can the desired objective be achieved?
Clear Ukrainian stock
When Russia rains drones into the skies of Kiev or Kharkiv, it is playing on the ground behind the war and wants to “continue to harass Ukraine” so that its air defenses are not available on the front line, explained Isabelle Dufour, strategic director. Studying in Eurocrisis. A strategy also used by both camps, and which was already in place last winter.
Another reason, perhaps more “recent”, according to Isabelle Dufour, “is the attempt to deplete the stock of Ukrainian air defense munitions. And it works “. “We also see that the interception rate is falling,” notes Tatiana Custoueva-Jean, director of the Russia/NIS Center at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). Yet it remains significant, “about 70%” according to Isabelle Dufour, and the damage is still limited. But on the other hand, “there is no possibility that the Russian stock (of drones) Isabelle Dufour warns that Moscow is tired of knowing it has entered a war economy.
Especially since the price difference is significant: while Russia sends an Iranian-made Shahed drone estimated at 20,000 euros, a Patriot missile used by Kiev to destroy it costs 3.80 million euros, according to data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS ).
Break the resistance
In addition to military motivations, Russia also seeks to “break the will to resist the Ukrainians and the will of the West to support them,” analyzes Tatiana Kastouve-Jean. “To balance the victory achieved at an enormous human cost”, Vladimir Putin “is therefore trying to activate this lever of pressure on both Ukrainians and the West”, she continues. The Russian president is thus keen to send a message to the West: resistance and support of Ukraine will only prolong the suffering of the population and make Ukraine a financial pit.
If Russia’s objective is achieved, the consequences could be dramatic. “In the long term, it is the financial exhaustion of Ukraine that is at stake, but also of its supporters,” explains Isabelle Dufour. The day the Ukrainian military doesn’t have what it takes to defend its skies, “it will be a disaster,” she predicts. The Russians will be able to do what they want and we will be faced with two final options: the collapse of Ukraine or disastrous negotiations, with the loss of conquered territories, including the eastern Donbass and part of Crimea. .
Ukrainian resilience put to the test
But after nearly two years of war, these attacks from the sky seem to have little, if any, effect on the morale of the population. Compared to last winter, when the entire country was lit by candles and could not heat itself due to damage to the energy infrastructure, Ukrainians are “better equipped, with electronic generators and quick repair know-how,” reports Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean. “Last year’s experience proved that bombing Ukrainian infrastructure does not break resilience,” she adds.
Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean suggests that, as the resistance grows stronger, Ukrainians are more united and “united behind President Zelensky”. However, Ukrainians will not be able to get out of this alone. The West, which has “begun to experience Ukrainian fatigue”, in the words of an expert, will have to redouble its efforts to support the war effort.
War in Ukraine
