What we know about the loss of two Russian strategic aircraft

On January 15, 2024, the Ukrainian military announced the destruction of the first two planes. An A-50 serves as airborne detection, and an Il-22 flying command post. Very quickly, the Ukrainian Air Force released a visual claiming this double victory over the Russian Air Force. On X (formerly Twitter) alone, an account followed by more than 234,000 people, the comment “Who did this?” » (Who did it?) However, this appears at the top of the page, leaving no doubt about the circumstances of the destruction of the two planes.

As of this writing, on January 16, 2024, the radar plane has disappeared without a trace. The plane is likely to have crashed into the sea after being shot down by a missile. By cross-checking the testimonies of various analysts and satellite images, we were able to trace the trail of the A-50. The plane has already been spotted parked at Anapa Airport, located near the confrontation zone near the Sea of ​​Azov, and which has been closed to civilian traffic since the beginning of the conflict.

Ukrainian Media Channel 24 He believes in knowing: ” The A-50 was shot down shortly after taking over the Kirillovka region around 9:10-9:15 pm. It stopped responding to tactical aviation requests, and a Russian Su-30 pilot subsequently reported an unidentified aircraft on fire and crashing. ” The statement is to be taken with caution, as it comes from a media broadcast from one of the countries involved in the conflict. The same channel adds: ” At the same time, an Il-22 was in service in the Strelkovoy region. It was lowered from the Sea of ​​Azov around 9:00 p.m. The damaged plane wanted to land in Anapa. The pilot requested to evacuate and also called paramedics and firefighters ”

The two aircraft would have been targeted minutes apart, intended to serve as airspace surveillance and flying command posts. According to images released a few hours later, the first was probably lost following a direct hit, the second was severely hit. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian military, Valery Zalozhny, released a video of what appeared to be the radar tracks of an A-50 and Il-22.

Hit mid-flight by a missile

On the afternoon of Monday 15 January, a photograph of the plane’s damaged tail attracted attention RFI verification data cell. It first appeared on pro-Russian Telegram channels before going viral on social media.

A reverse image search shows that it has not been previously published. We see the tail (distribution) of eleochene-22, which is splashed by the impact. The marks left in the metal are characteristic of the detonation of a proximity fuse, i.e. a missile’s warhead intended to detonate before impact to maximize the weapon’s effect. A shower of steel balls hit about 80% of the plane’s fin.

The lower part of the fuselage and the rear part were also affected. Apparently, the cigar-shaped piece at the tip of the tail has disappeared. However, it is typical of the “Zebra” version of the Il-22M dedicated to the command. This portion could have been occluded during detonation or erased using image processing software. This cannot be ruled out as the photo of the tail, which initially appeared on Russian networks, appears to have been altered.

In this case, the registration on the back is hidden, to avoid formal identification of the machine. At the end of the afternoon, an exclusive magazine claimed to have found the original photo on a widely followed Ukrainian account, on which we can distinguish the last digits of the registration “….5678”. After verification, there is indeed an Ilyushin-22M belonging to the Russian military with the code RF-95678.

The plane wears blue and white stripes borrowed from the Aeroflot airline’s civil decoration, (not uncommon in Russia for so-called “special” planes), even though other IL-22s and IL-20s are of very similar models. Mostly painted gray. The inscription BBC in Russian, or VVS in Latin for Voïoienno-Vozdouchnye Sily Rossïi -Russian Air Force, and a red star confirm that it is indeed a military machine.

So we are faced with a body of evidence that suggests that the Russian plane landed successfully. However, to add to the confusion, an image of the wreckage of another IL-22 of the same version is doing the rounds on the internet. This is almost the same machine, but On June 24, 2023, PMC Wagner was killed by mercenaries.in Voronezh Oblast.

Crash landing

Regarding the circumstances of the landing, the damage to the aircraft indicated that the controls (direction and elevator) must have lost effectiveness, but it remained flyable. Geolocation work established that the photo of the severely damaged plane was indeed taken at night over the civilian airfield of Anapa. The layout of the buildings and control tower visible in the background of the image corresponds to the airport plan.

The fire truck that interfered with the runway on the day of the crash landing was seen at the same airport during an organized visit a few months earlier. The tail corresponds to the type and number seen in the photo.

Moreover, at the end of the afternoon, Kiev finally recognized that the Russian command plane had indeed found shelter in Anapa. A spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy Ignat, was quoted by AFP as saying it was irreparable. Also quoted by Agence France-Presse, Alexandre Coates, a war correspondent loyal to the Kremlin, spoke of the A-50 plane on his Telegram channel. to fall and IL-22 Safe “To Russian Telegram Channel WarGonzo” Death of our fighters » regarding the A-50, and also claimed that another aircraft ” for land “, although damaged.

Beriv A-50, a central element for the Russian military

This double blow is enough to mark souls in the ranks of the Russian army. These are actually two capital pieces of Moscow’s arsenal that are out of action. For the Russian military, the losses are immense. The Beriv A-50 Which appears to have been damaged in the Sea of ​​Azov, is equivalentAwacs For NATO forces. It is a four-jet detection and command engine, fifty meters long, equipped with a large radar antenna.

The device allows you to see into the depth of the opposing device. Hence it is essential to maintain air quality in the air system. But it is a rare aircraft. The Russian Air Force has only ten examples, of which only half are in flying condition. What is certain is that from the beginning of the war, the Russian Air Force was unable to use this device permanently.

So the loss of such a strategic aircraft is a serious setback for the Russian forces and On the contrary For Ukraine it represents an increase in power, especially with the upcoming arrival of F-16 aircraft which will therefore be able to fly without fear of being spotted. Moscow, which already lacks naval control of the Black Sea, now struggles to maintain control of the skies.

Friendly fire?

The exact circumstances of the destruction of the two planes have not been clearly established. Are they attributed to Ukrainian missiles or shots from the Russian side? Doubt remains. anti-aircraft systems patriot were able to reach the Ukrainian defense apparatus. But since they had a range of 160 kilometers, the system had to be deployed very close to the front line. However, the status of a system patriot Closer to the front is dangerous. That is why these systems are usually installed around large Ukrainian cities, far from Russian artillery.

But it is not impossible. Some experts even believe that the Ukrainians managed to set up the system patriot said “Floating” or mobile, which they move according to the mission. This system “abnormal” Thus the two Russian command planes may have surprised those who thought they were flying into a safe zone.

Moreover, the damage caused by the drift of the crash-landed Il-22M suggests that the missiles used against the two Russian aircraft that night were armed with significant warheads, the image of the North American-built Patriot, but for example the older SA-5 (S-200) still Also available in the Ukrainian arsenal.

That said, the use of Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries is only a hypothesis. For other analysts, the accident scenario seems more likely. On the Russian side, very poor coordination of ground and air forces has persisted since the beginning of the conflict. Russian defense batteries can fire at very well uninformed planes. This possibility is also favored by Russian military bloggers. In their eyes, fraternal fire would be somehow less humiliating than admitting that a Western missile could shoot down the highly strategic A-50. Berry.