Leaders of 27 member states are meeting in Brussels on Thursday for a European Council dedicated in part to supporting Kiev in the short and long term.
What are the prospects for European support for Ukraine almost two years after the start of the Russian invasion? Among other topics related to the EU’s long-term budget, aid to Kyiv is on the agenda of the European Council, which begins in Brussels on Thursday February 1. During a visit to Sweden on Tuesday, Emmanuel Macron made the request “Just and Courageous Decisions”, for’“velocity” European aid to Ukraine.
“We will do everything to ensure that Europe’s common contribution is significant enough”, The German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, in turn launched The stakes are high, as the conflict in Ukraine escalates into a war of attrition. EU support and increasing its power, crucial for Kyiv, still face several challenges.
Space of the Hungarian blockade
European leaders are due to discuss 50 billion euros in aid for Ukraine on Thursday (17 billion in grants and 33 billion in loans until 2027). There is help in question “Important so that the Ukrainian state can continue to function”Deciphers Marie Dumoulin, Director of the Wider Europe Program at the European Council on International Relations (ECFR). “It also gives visibility and confidence to Ukraine.” Deep in the war, the country must still allocate 37 billion euros to its defense this year, or half of its spending, Politico Europe shows.
This financial assistance is, however, conditional on unanimous adoption by the twenty-seven and therefore on Hungary’s agreement. In December, Viktor Orbán vetoed the aid plan, and his position appears to have changed little. “We don’t like this proposal,” Recalls a nationalist prime minister close to Vladimir Putin in an interview the point
“They try to persuade us, then force, then blackmail, force us to join them.”
Viktor Orbán, Hungarian Prime Ministeron point”
Despite his speech, the Hungarian leader has recently hinted at a path forward: voting at this stage in favor of aid, but reserving the right to change his mind later. “Every year we will decide whether to continue sending this money,” In his interview with the point So a potential standoff would only be postponed, depriving Kiev of certainty for the next three years.
Another option is to take this aid from the European budget committed to 26, reports the American press agency AP. Such plans have to be approved by national parliaments, and “This will mean the end of consensus”, Analyzes Marie Dumoulin. A sign of disunity that could benefit Moscow.
The Hungarian situation is “A huge political challenge” For Brussels, Gesin Weber, a researcher at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank, confirms. “Hungary’s Veto Weight Remains Significant.” Especially since Budapest doesn’t just block this aid. In early January, Hungary was still opposed to a new tranche of 500 million euros for the European Peace Facility (EFF), reports the echo. The instrument reimburses member states for military aid sent to Kyiv. According to Bloomberg, the country has, however, agreed to freeze the 5 billion euro funds dedicated to this aid for now.
Difficulty planning massive military aid over the long term
On the eve of the European Council, the leaders of the Twenty-seven convened Financial Times, is one “A collective effort to arm Ukraine in the long run.” “It is urgent today to send munitions and weapons systems, including howitzers, tanks, drones and air defenses, which Ukraine urgently needs on the ground”, They insist.
In terms of ammunition, the European Commission announced in March a project to deliver one million weapons to Kiev in one year. However, in November, nearly 300,000 shells were delivered, at a time when thousands are fired every day. And the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, admitted on Wednesday that only half of the promised million shells would be delivered by the end of March.
European production capacity has increased by 20 to 30% in less than a year, but 40% of EU production remains destined for export. For Gassin Weber, this gap between promise and reality shows that “The European defense industry has not yet risen to the challenge, even though much has been done.”
“European support for Ukraine has exceeded all expectations, but that does not mean it is enough. Ukraine needs more military aid.”
Gesin Weber, expert on European security and defenceat franceinfo
Regarding ammunition, some divisions were the first obstacle. As Gustav Gressel points out, European Council for International RelationsIt takes a lot of time and investment to ramp up production. “Many member states were reluctant to commit to long-term delivery contracts. However, these contracts are essential to provide defense companies with stable income, which guarantees the financing of new investments.”
Overcoming this long-term milestone is especially critical. “We did not expect the idea of a long war. By sending heavy equipment, we remained on the idea that it was enough to send the existing stocks, that Ukraine could end the war. War with this effort”, Commented Pierre Harroch, Lecturer in International Security at Queen Mary University of London (United Kingdom).
“Over the past year, many existing stocks are no longer available. Are we now ready to engage in a real mobilization effort, to guarantee that Ukraine will have what it needs to fight for years to come?”
Pierre Haroche, expert on European integration and securityat franceinfo
For the researcher, the member states have not yet entered the war economy, and the national logic rather than that of the European countries prevails. According to data from the Kiel Institute (IFW), Pierre Haroche cited Germany as the leading supplier of military aid to Ukraine after the United States. Berlin, which has pledged more than 17 billion euros in military aid in less than two years, is speaking “Reduction in national contributions to the European Peace Facility, for countries that already give a lot bilaterally”.. For comparison, France is at the bottom of Kiel’s ranking. She disputes this data, asserting that certain donations have not been made public. “The delivery of our weapons is a game changer“, Recently announced the Minister of Armed Forces, Sebastián Lecornu.
Aid to Ukraine – and rearmament efforts – therefore differ widely from one member state to another. In a recent study for the Jacques Delors Institute (in PDF)Pierre Harroch called for better European coordination to avoid excesses “split” of the defense market. The challenge, offering Kiev a long-term perspective, is also that “Build our own capacity for resistance” After decades of declining investment, the explorer continues. “We must have a better industrial defense capability than Russia. Support Ukraine today, and be reliable in the face of a potential Russian attack. (on European soil) Tomorrow.” Especially if the United States, the main supplier of military aid to Ukraine, withdraws.
The risk of American disengagement
In Washington, the Biden administration wants Congress to approve a new 56 billion euro envelope for Kiev, but talks with Republicans are slipping. American conservatives, who have a majority in the House of Representatives, have pushed for this new support to be negotiated in parallel with measures on immigration. An agreement is far from over.
As the US presidential election draws closer, the prospects for a financial and military retreat by the United States are looming. Donald Trump, a big favorite in the Republican camp, sees the Russian invasion of Ukraine as less important to the United States, and has condemned the significant deployment of American military equipment to the front.
“A second term would be more reassuring for Joe Biden (for aid to Ukraine)But in the medium term, it will be very complicated”, Researcher Gesin Weber predicts. “Even under this administration, this aid is increasingly difficult to obtain. For the United States, Ukraine is an important war, but what is most important is the risk of confrontation with China.”
“The idea that we can just sit back and trust the United States dates back to the 1980s.”
Gesin Weberat franceinfo
On the European Union side, notes Marie Dumoulin “awareness” A possible end of American support, even imminent. “This should, ideally, encourage them to take a larger share of aid to Ukraine and develop their own capabilities. But I’m afraid we’re still a long way from there.”
