The organization criticizes the government for providing “no room for maneuver in less favorable circumstances” than the “optimistic” assumptions on which the government relies.
The Auditors Court in its annual public report, which will be published on Tuesday, lacks will in the Public Finance Programming Law (LPFP) introduced by the government in the way of public deficit for the years 2023 to 2027. The deficit is to come back below 3% of GDP in 2027 “ambitious”The court speculated, specifically criticizing the government for ratifying “Growing Social Security Deficit”. But this is also the way “delicate”Because she doesn’t understand “There is no room for maneuver in case of less favorable situation” that hypotheses “The Optimists” On which the government depends.
Out of more than 700 pages, mostly devoted to adaptation to climate change, about forty pages, like every year, provide an overall list of public finances. “For me, the situation is serious”, “cross” only “concern”, the press summarized the first president of the financial jurisdiction, Pierre Moscovici. Pathway presented by the Government in the Law on Public Finance Programming (LPFP) for the year 2023 to 2027 “Combines three weaknesses”The court considers: “Overly Optimistic Macroeconomic Scenario to 2024”a “late return” Public deficit below 3% of GDP in 2027 and “Unprecedented but undocumented cost containment efforts postponed to 2025-2027 period”.
A “delicate” way
“Adherence to Deficit Objective” Announced at 4.4% of GDP for 2024 “not acquired”Pierre Moscovici also warned against the recent cuts of 10 billion euros in the state budget, which are taken into account in the report, which gives a snapshot to the end of February 2024. Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire made the announcement in mid-February. , at the same time as it lowered the French growth forecast for 2024 to 1%, compared to the 1.4% initially maintained when the budget was drawn up – a macroeconomic scenario that the Court believes was there from the start. “unlikely”. These were credit cancellations “Essentials” But may not be “Enough to maintain deficit trajectory”Guess Pierre Moscovici. “The path set by the government is ambitious and very fragile”He also said in an interview the echo Published on Monday evening.
However, any delay this year “Risks weaken, or even become obsolete, the way” The return of the deficit to below 3% in 2027, the report notes, does not take into account the upward revision last Wednesday of the 2023 public deficit, the government is now projecting. “significantly” Above the target of 4.9% of GDP. For the moment, Bursey has not revised its short- or long-term deficit objectives. But with cumulative delays to 2023, “The distance to closure is still wide”Warning of the President of the Court of Auditors.
The path between now and 2027 confirms and sets a social security deficit of 17.2 billion euros. “ambitious” And “delicate”Depending on the organization, “Includes no room for maneuver in case of less favorable conditions”, the report warns, is still optimistic given government forecasts of growth and full employment. Pierre Moscovici welcomed Wednesday’s announcement of 20 billion euros of savings for all public finances in 2025, while insisting that they are also on track for the remaining 50 billion euros of savings by 2027. “Not documented or certified at this stage”.
Also readAdaptation to climate change: Court of Auditors regrets “absence of complete and consistent statistics”.
According to the Court of Auditors, they will be “More and more difficult” To understand that “Increasing interest charges and numerous sectoral programming laws (defense, justice, interior, research) are already increasing public spending”, in addition to future costs on ecological transition. The Court of Auditors thus estimates the public finances “Eurozone to be most in recession in 2024”Risk of exposing France “For difficult discussions with the Commission and its European partners”The new rules currently under discussion include a framework.
With public debt forecast at 109.7% of GDP in 2024 and 108.1% in 2027, “We are firmly established on the podium of the three most indebted countries in the euro zone”, regrets Pierre Moscovici. According to Eurostat, the other two countries on this podium at the end of 2023 are Greece and Italy. Its jurisdiction therefore recommends “Compensation for any additional expenditure or tax reduction with preference in expenditure and savings or increase in income”And to prepare for “Ambitious Reforms”. “There are significant efforts to be made”Pierre Moscovici seconded, will be the next Finance Bill (PLF). “The hardest thing to achieve since the financial crisis”is necessary “Courage and Political Will”.
(TagsToTranslate)Court of Auditor
