In March 2023, the European Union (EU) approved plans to increase ammunition production to be able to deliver approximately one million 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine a year. Two billion euros were to be released for this purpose.
However, contrary to the statements of Thierry Breton, Commissioner of the Internal Market and Industry (“The figures are confidential, but we will maintain this objective”, he said in the broadcast of LCI last August), the account is not there. By the end of 2023, only a third of the promised shells had actually been delivered to Ukrainian forces.
However, in January, speaking to Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Mr Bretton re-assured that the EU would reach the target of producing one million shale per year by March or April. “We will continue to improve our production capacity, probably around 1.3 to 1.4 million at the end of this year, and continue to increase it significantly next year,” he said.
And he emphasized: “With the capacity to produce one million shells, we must make sure that the majority goes to Ukraine as a priority. Because that is where the immediate need is.”
For member states, the challenge is twofold: it is a question of continuing or even increasing their support for Ukraine while rebuilding their own ammunition stocks. However, for some of them, another challenge is honoring orders placed by third countries with their Defense Industrial and Technical Base (BITD).
On this last point, Josep Borrell, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, expressed a clear view during his visit to Poland on February 5.
“We must support Ukraine not only for as long as it takes, but with whatever it takes. It’s not just a question of time, it’s a question of the quantity and quality of our supplies,” Mr Borrell said at the start.
Also, “the fastest, cheapest and most effective way to increase our supply of ammunition to Ukraine is to stop exporting to third countries. This is something that only member states can do. “That’s what I asked,” he continued.
“The best way to sell more or give large donations to Ukraine is to say to others: ‘Please wait, you are not at war, you can wait several months’. And to redirect this production to Ukraine. This is a political decision that member states have to make. should be taken,” the European official asserted.
Except things aren’t that simple… First, exports to third countries meet contractual requirements: suspending them, even temporarily, requires renegotiating the contract, unless you expose yourself to possible penalties. Another possible consequence for the exporting country is the loss of markets for competitive advantage. And there is no doubt that American, South Korean, Turkish and Chinese manufacturers are just waiting for it.
Within the EU, only 11 countries have the capability to produce artillery shells (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Slovakia, Spain and Sweden). Granting export licenses is the sole responsibility of member states, it remains to be seen how many of them will be willing to respond to Mr Borrell’s exhortation…
(TagsToTranslate)European Commission
Source link
