The rise of the far right and the fall of the Greens and Liberals after the June elections will not fundamentally change the makeup of the European Parliament, according to an unprecedented Euronews/Ipsos survey.
AdvertisementSupport for the far right is expected to increase in the upcoming European elections, but pro-EU parties will still win 63% of the seats.According to a survey conducted by Ipsos for Euronews, published this Tuesday.
The exclusive poll, of around 26,000 people in countries representing 96% of the European Union’s population, is the first of its kind as part of the historic elections to be held in June.
The announced results will not change the basic configuration of the European Parliament, where Centrists will still muster the majority needed to pass the lawpoll indicates.
However, the radical right and Eurosceptic parties could make significant gains, as they are at the top in four of the six founding countries of the European Union. Additionally, uncertainty about the possible party affiliation of certain candidates may change the situation.
With nearly 400 million voters, The elections to be held from June 6 to 9, 2024 to appoint 720 European Deputies will constitute the world’s largest democratic exercise..
Despite five tumultuous years as Europe has faced the Covid-19 pandemic, soaring prices and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ipsos predicts a significant change in the fortunes of the European Union’s two dominant policies.
Pro-Europeans remain in the majority
According to the survey, the number of MEPs held by the centre-right EPP and the left-wing Socialists is expected to change little.
Renew Europe, Emmanuel Macron’s liberal coalition, is expected to come third, while the rise of the hard-right ID (Identity and Democracy) and Eurosceptic groups CRE (European Conservatives and Reformists) will push the Greens party into sixth place. survey.
One of the first essential tasks of the next European Parliament will be to approve the President of the European Commission.
So are the results Good news for outgoing President Ursula von der Leyen, whose EPP bloc looks well on its way to the top of the polls, with 177 MPs out of 720..
She could then get the majority she needs with the support of the other two main pro-European parties, including the Socialists and the Greens or the Liberals, depending on the results.
But these figures don’t tell the whole story, Fabian Zuleg of the European Policy Center said in an interview with Euronews – because in practice, Parties and countries are not always loyal when voting on individual political issues.
“If the center weakens, it will be more difficult to build a majority in Parliament”Fabian Zulig, executive director of the Brussels-based think tank, argues — especially on controversial issues.
He adds that this makes the European Commission rely more on non-legislative instruments such as spending programs or setting standards.
The rise of the radical right
With 30 additional meetings planned between ID and ECR, The far right will especially benefit from progress with the support of traditionally pro-European countries.
National Rally, the French party led by Marine Le Pen, is expected to gain ten more seats, making it the largest party in the European Parliament alongside Germany’s CDU/CSU.
Dutchman Geert Wilders’ party, the surprise winner of the national election in November 2023, will gain nine seats.
Giorgia Maloney’s Brothers of Italy party is expected to win 24 of Italy’s 76 seats, while in Belgium, two right-wing nationalist parties, Vlaams Belang and NVA, will get three each. In Germany, the AfD party is expected to have 15 MEPs, which would place it third nationally.
AdvertisementThese successes can have consequences for the development of European policiesAcademic Cas Mudde explains to Euronews, leading to a harder line on immigration and green laws.
But the far right does not always agree on issues such as supporting Ukraine, and a Brexit-style withdrawal is not on the agenda, argues Cass Mudde, a professor at the University of Georgia in the United States who specializes in European democratic extremism.
“In general, there will be less support for deepening European integration”It adds, but it clarifies Most far-right parties today want change rather than leaving the EU.
Greens lose support
According to the survey, The Greens are expected to lose 17 MEPs, mainly in France and GermanyAnd this while the EPP’s position has recently hardened against the EU’s green policies, which seek to cut its emissions by 55% by 2030.
Also Given that the EU has already set its overall strategic objectives, a step backwards on this climate is not necessary.Jose Delbecco told Euronews in an interview.
Advertisement“The main legal texts have already been adopted, and the next term will focus more on their implementation”Explains Professor Jose Delbeke of the Florence School of Transnational Governance, formerly Head of the Climate Change Department of the European Commission.
Despite growing opposition from farmers and the work that remains to be done to fight pollution and protect nature, the Green Deal will be very difficult to break, he adds.
Uncertainty remains
Ipsos surveyed 25,916 people by telephone and online in 18 countries between February 23 and March 5. Coefficients were applied to the results to ensure their representativeness and supplemented by desk research for the last nine small EU member states.
But there are still three months to go and these data are just estimates, not results. Even after an election, there may be a change of allegiance or a new coalition.
The role of “non-aligned” MEPs, who do not belong to any defined group and who, according to the survey, may represent around 10% of legislators, will be a key element to watch.
AdvertisementAlthough mainly left-wing and centrist politicians, the non-registered also include about a dozen members of Hungary’s right-wing Fidesz party, which left the EPP in 2021. If we consider the latter, a right-wing majority in parliament may appear, even if the margin is narrow..
Similarly, the status of the currently unaffiliated Italian 5 Star Movement may prove essential. If he succeeds in joining the Green Party, as he has tried to do in the past, his planned 16 MEPs could significantly change the makeup of the European Parliament.
