Whatever the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Russia has already suffered a “strategic defeat”. That’s the view expressed by General Thierry Burkhardt, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces (CEMA), during the inaugural conference on “Key Contemporary Strategic Issues” at the Sorbonne on January 22, according to reported remarks. .
“If the conflict ends today, what will be the result? Ukraine resisted against all odds. Sweden and Finland (…) have joined NATO (at least, Stockholm is going to do so, editor’s note). The condition of the Russian army is critical. It is no longer a threat to NATO. Russia has established a vassalization link with China. It puts itself in a position of strategic defeat,” CEMA explained.
However, British Defense Minister Grant Shapps is not exactly on the same line. “Another alarming factor now appears: our adversaries are more closely aligned with each other,” he recently said in a January 15 speech at Lancaster House. “Russia maintains a ‘boundless partnership’ with China” and is “counting on Iranian drones and North Korean ballistic missiles to bomb Ukraine,” he added.
Meanwhile, Germany’s Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, once again warned against the threat of war during an interview broadcast by ZDF on January 21 (which he has been doing regularly for several weeks now…). Although a Russian attack does not seem likely “for now,” he explained that it could happen in a few years. “Our experts expect there will be a period in five to eight years in which this will be possible,” he said. Also, “we must be able to wage war,” he asserted.
In October, Mr. Pistorius already said more or less the same thing… “we have to get used again to the idea that there could be a threat of war in Europe” and that means we have to prepare for war, that we have to defend ourselves. And should be able to prepare the Bundeswar and the society for that,” he declared on the same channel. From then on, the question arose of re-establishing a new form of military service across the Rhine.
In Sweden, there is also talk of preparing the civilian population for possible war. “My primary intention is not to scare, but to create awareness of the situation. I want to open a door: a door that is often blocked and cluttered by the demands and challenges of everyday life. A door that many Swedes would have kept closed all their lives. A gateway to a place where we face an important question: Who are you if war breaks out? », announced Swedish Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin on January 7.
Naturally, this question also “acted” on the Chief of the British Army, General Sir Patrick Sanders. Thus, during a conference held at Twickenham (whose stadium could bring together all the troops of the British army) he thought that the whole society of the Channel should prepare for the possibility of war.
It is “necessary and not merely desirable” to “take initial steps” to put our society on a war footing if necessary. This is an action that must rally the entire nation,” declared General Sanders. “Ukraine explains that professional armies start wars and civilian armies win them,” he added.
“Our predecessors failed to understand the meaning of the so-called July Crisis of 1914 and found themselves in the most horrible of wars,” the British Army chief continued.
However, there is no question of restoring the tide for him. However, he continued, “we need a military that can grow quickly from the first army and provide resources to the second group, then train and equip the civilian army that follows.” In the next three years, we could be talking about a British army of 120,000 men, including reservists. But it is still not enough. ” Clearly, it would be a question of laying the foundations that would make possible a possible “national mobilization”… at a time when the British Armed Forces – and the British Army in particular – are experiencing a professional crisis.
Such comments echo those made recently by the chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer. “We need public and private actors to change their mindset to move from an era where everything can be planned, predictable, controllable and focused on efficiency to an era where anything can happen at any time,” he said last week. declared.
