According to the US, Russia is using North Korean missiles in Ukraine. That is bad news for Asia

(CNN) — Russia has fired short-range ballistic missiles supplied by North Korea over Ukraine twice in the past week, an “escalation” of Pyongyang’s support for Moscow that has serious implications for both the war in Europe and the security of the Korean Peninsula. The White House said. Thursday.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said at a White House briefing that North Korean-made missiles were fired at Ukraine on December 30 and January 2. They were among at least 500 missiles and drones fired at Ukraine around the New Year holidays, according to Kiev.

The December 30 attack involved only one missile that landed, while Russia’s January 2 attack involved multiple missiles, he said. The effects of the missiles fired on January 2 were still being assessed, Kirby said, adding that they were part of a “larger” Russian attack.

“As part of our sanctions and export controls, Russia has increasingly isolated itself on the world stage and has been forced to seek military equipment from like-minded states,” Kirby said at the briefing. “As we have been publicly warning, one of those states is North Korea.”

How will North Korea benefit?

Kirby and analysts who spoke to CNN said North Korea’s introduction of weapons in the Ukraine war would affect 7,500 kilometers east of the Korean peninsula.

“This is a significant and worrisome escalation in support for the DPRK for Russia,” Kirby said, using an acronym for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

“We anticipate that Russia and North Korea will learn from this launch,” Kirby added.

Analysts echoed that sentiment, saying North Korea’s battlefield use of missiles in Ukraine could provide Pyongyang with data it cannot obtain from the testing program under which it has fired dozens of weapons in recent years.

“It will be interesting to see how these missiles perform in a more operational environment and outside of the North Korean propaganda machine, especially any indication of accuracy and guidance systems actually being used,” said Joseph Dempsey, research associate at Defense and Military Analysis. International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia’s use of missiles against Ukraine allows North Korea to collect data on how it penetrated similar defenses used by South Korea and the United States. May deploy on the Korean Peninsula.

“Technically, I doubt the North Koreans would be very interested in knowing how their missiles perform against Western missile defense systems,” he said.

Speaking at the White House, Kirby said the consequences for South Korea and the region go beyond Pyongyang’s ability to complete its missile programs.

“In return for its support, we assess that Pyongyang is seeking military assistance from Russia, including fighter jets, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment, military hardware and other advanced technologies,” Kirby said. .

“This will have worrisome security implications for the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region.”

The areas Kirby points out are where North Korea’s East Asian rivals — particularly South Korea, the United States and Japan — are perceived to have major advantages over the isolated nation.

For example, all three have advanced F-35 stealth fighters that will give them a great advantage when trying to breach North Korea’s air defenses. But the F-35’s lead could be significantly reduced if Pyongyang acquires more sophisticated Russian surface-to-air missiles with advanced tracking radars.

According to Lee Jang Wook, a researcher at the Center for Security and Strategy at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA), Russia is also likely to send money to Pyongyang.

Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin shake hands at the start of their talks at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur Region, Russia on September 13, 2023. (Credit: Vladimir Smirnov/Sputnik/AP)

Advantages for Russia

“North Korea’s SRBM missiles are unlikely to provide a qualitative advantage over what is already in Russia’s inventory. Instead, the main advantage is quantitative, augmenting Russia’s depleted missile stockpile and providing an additional supply line,” Dempsey said.

Panda said the North Korean missiles “will allow Russia to continue to strike in depth without depleting its own missile stockpile.” North Korean missiles have a range of up to 900 kilometers, Kirby said, allowing them to be fired from inside Russian territory, where Moscow’s air defenses can better protect the missiles from Ukrainian counterattacks.

And North Korean supplies have another advantage for Moscow, Panda said.

“Given the land border between Russia and North Korea, as long as Pyongyang is willing to continue cooperating with Russia, it will be almost impossible for Western states to stop the transfer,” he said.

The outlook for Ukraine is worrisome.

“We anticipate that Russia will use more North Korean missiles to attack Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and kill innocent Ukrainian civilians,” Kirby said.

CNN’s Soeun Kim contributed to this report.