According to a military expert, “the Russians wanted to test the system” after a Russian missile passed through Polish airspace.
According to General Dominique Trinquand, the former head of the French military mission to the UN, the Russian missile launch was not intentional, even if the Kremlin could use it to serve its interests.
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Russia launched a massive missile and drone strike against Ukraine on Sunday, March 24, targeting the capital Kyiv and the Lviv region in the west of the country. Poland condemned the violation of its airspace by one of the Russian missiles. A cruise missile violated Polish airspace for about forty seconds before firing, the Polish military said on Sunday.
For General Dominique Trinquand, the former head of the French military mission to the UN, the shot was not necessarily deliberate, even if Russia could use it for its interests.. “The Russians probably knew it would pass close to the border and allowed them to test the system at the same time”It analyzes.
franceinfo: What is the margin of error on the route? This could have significant consequences, especially since Poland is a member of NATO…
Dominique Trinquand: Of course, much depends on the missiles. And Russian missiles have repeatedly shown that they are relatively accurate. So it’s not impossible that it’s bad programming, but it’s also not impossible that the jamming, which is done to prevent them from striking, disrupts them and they go off course. But given the proximity to the Polish border, the more you strike, the more you risk such incidents. The Polish reaction marked both its ability to recognize a missile approaching its airspace, but at the same time its ability to react quickly by calling the Russian ambassador for clarification and to remain very firm regarding these actions by the Russian. Army
On a purely military level, the Polish military monitors the trajectory of Russian missiles on a daily basis. Can it react in the event of a serious threat?
A lot depends on where the missile passes. Polish air defense can’t cover the whole region so I think there might be some holes. And (for an airspace violation) 39 seconds is still too short. So, at that time, were there no air patrols and therefore the delay that intervened was a little too long? I do not know. In any case, we could not avoid a missile landing, but not one, not two.
We also know that intimidation is a part of war. Could that be part of what happened last night?
Intimidation, I don’t think so, because a missile doesn’t scare many people when it spends 30 seconds in Polish airspace. On the other hand, this tests the defensive system, especially the ability of the radar to identify them and the Polish reaction ability, yes, it is completely possible.
When we see how Vladimir Putin is taking advantage of events to write his truth, can we imagine the Russian president using this violation of Polish airspace to provoke the West?
I will distinguish two cases. Because indeed, President Putin is now at war, his spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, he said. “war” And no more special military action. Putin is at war with Ukraine, so he has no interest in having another enemy, the Islamic State. That is why he wants his people to understand that there is a war, and therefore tensions are rising, which will allow him to tighten his rule and take a certain number of measures. But one enemy is enough. And for NATO, it is an ideological enemy, but it knows that it has no interest in confronting NATO militarily. As much as the attack is being used to signal that his war against Ukraine is still ongoing, it is indeed President Putin’s desire that a clash with NATO is not in his interest.
