Is Europe ready for Trump’s re-election? – DW – 01/24/2024

Following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the New Hampshire primary, the chances that he will become the Republican presidential nominee for the November 2024 elections have increased.

Not only polls predict Trump’s realistic chances of retaking the White House. On the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, politicians and business leaders took notice New York Times That the world elite is already counting on a victory for the Republican elite.

Faced with this scenario, voices of warning against Trump’s return to Europe are rising: In an interview with the media France 2European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde called Trump’s potential election victory a “clear threat” to Europe.

Similarly, in a speech before the European Parliament in mid-January, Belgian Prime Minister Alexandre de Croix said that if, in 2024, the slogan “United States” returns with Trump, Europe will be more isolated than ever.

Strengthening military capabilities and economy

How can Europe prepare for a Trump 2.0 scenario? Sudha David-Wilp, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Berlin office, told DW that “Europe must become a strong actor militarily” and be able to deal with security issues in its own neighborhood.

In addition, he insists, Europe must strengthen itself economically to prepare for possible protectionist measures in a second Trump administration.

For his part, Jürgen Hardt, foreign policy spokesman for the conservative CDU/CSU parliamentary group, fears that Germany is not well prepared: “In the last three years, we have not done enough to help Joe Biden demonstrate that his cooperative style is more suitable for Europe than Trump’s confrontational style. is successful,” he asserted in statements to DW.

“We did not try to develop a joint strategy for China, nor did we conclude agreements regarding defense spending. We moved only under the pressure of the war in Ukraine,” adds Deputy Hardt.

Above all, in relation to Ukraine, the fear of another Trump administration is great. Candidate statements on whether he would end war and aid are conflicting.

Sudha David-Wilp believes that regardless of who wins in November, most Americans are convinced that Europe should bear more of the burden of military aid and reconstruction of Ukraine, since the country is located on the European continent.

Troubled relationship with NATO

In European capitals, Trump’s relationship with NATO is also a concern. During his first administration, it was hardly possible to prevent him from abandoning the military alliance.

In January, Trump told the media that he would only militarily support European NATO allies that “behave right” with the United States. “NATO has benefited our country. European countries have benefited from it,” he said.

According to Joseph Bramall, an expert on American politics, Trump sees Europe as an enemy, so Europe should present itself as a joint actor.

Bramall bets money on unifying the various interests in the old continent: he believes that it is necessary to contract joint debts, give financial support to individual countries and impose conditions on them in return.

Nuclear Defense Concerns

A European debt fund would also serve to pay for its own defense if Donald Trump decides to withdraw Europe’s nuclear shield, the expert argues. According to German politician Hardt, this will force Europe to think about expanding its nuclear arsenal.

Trump’s possible re-election will test not only transatlantic relations, but also European unity.

(vt/cp)