China is trying to interfere in Taiwan’s presidential election in four ways

Release balloons at high altitudes on the island, money in favor of influential peopleBeijing on social media and hosting local officials on grand tours China: These are some of the tactics that Beijing is accused of deploying Influences the presidential election No Taiwan Which will be held on Saturday.

Over the years, Taiwan -which Beijing claims is an “integral” part China– Chinese influence campaigns aimed at persuading citizens to submit to the Chinese government Chinese Communist Party It is your best option. Those efforts have gone further than expected The closest presidential and legislative races For the island’s democracy in decades.

This Taiwan authorities They are investigating 102 cases of foreign intervention related to election This year, according to the Supreme Prosecutor’s Office, the highest number since then Taiwan In 2019, the Anti-Intrusion Act was enacted. Many of them are related Chinawho is interested in overthrowing the ruler Democratic Progressive Party (PPD), which they believe promotes formal independence and sees a more Beijing-friendly president in office.

The results of these efforts are important beyond Taiwan. The next Taiwanese president’s attitude toward Beijing will be a factor China will decide whether to start a conflict in the Taiwan StraitOne that can attract USA and disrupting the supply of neighboring countries, global shipping routes and critical technology.

What’s more, this Influence tactics Which is useful Taiwan Can be replicated elsewhere. He Foreign Minister of Taiwan, Joseph Wuwarned on Tuesday: “In 2024will be more than 40 Important Democratic Elections of the World. Yes China is successful in Taiwan, China “He will use that experience to intervene in other countries’ elections.”

But measuring the impact or presence of China’s influence efforts is becoming increasingly difficult. Be aware that overly forceful tactics can alienate voters from the party of choice China – That Kuomintang (KMT– and bring them closer PPDwhich leads to voting, China She fears him too much.

“There’s a real potential for that to backfire,” he said. Alexander DukalskisAssociate Professor of University College Dublin and author of “Making the World Safe for Dictatorship.” “People don’t want to be intimidated by being told how to vote.”

Administration Biden warned China It does not interfere, however Beijing The PPD has been accused of “exaggerating” the military threat China to get votes.

“The Chinese are attacking them with a lot of different mechanisms, and it looks like at least now their least favorite candidate is going to win,” said a senior US administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Point “So that’s a sign that the system is more resilient.”

Whether these measures affect elections or not, they can still advance goals China in Taiwan Constantly and slowly. “If I can influence 3 to 5 percent of the people, I can influence the outcome of the election,” he said. Chang Chun-haoProfessor of Political Science at Tungai University in Taiwan. “And even if they don’t influence the election results, they may have fueled the unification campaign.”

There are four main ways Beijing to try Interference in Taiwan’s presidential election This year:

This Chinese disinformation in Taiwan Primarily used with news articles or social media posts with clumsily written vocabulary. China or in simplified Chinese text instead of the traditional text used in Taiwan. Now, that campaign has been localized and Chinese evangelists have been encouraged to expand Actual local disputes and divisionssaid Tim NivenHead of Research at Taiwan Doublethink Laboratory. “It’s putting Taiwan polarization on steroids,” he said.

last year, Taiwan He was inundated with rumours, including Taiwanese officialsunder the orders of WashingtonCollecting blood samples from civilians to create genetic weapons Chinaor what USA Push the Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC Setting up a factory in Arizona To be able to let go Taiwan And his Chip supply chains.

For months thought that USA Known as not a reliable partner yimeiluneither “American Skepticism”, has gained strength due to constant Amplification by Chinese media.

This Beijing influence campaign Also tapped into networks of local content creators who are friendly Beijing. This Taiwan authorities Investigating a digital media company that operates more than 20 pages Facebook With a large number of followers and comments from time to time PPD.

According to screenshots of the conversation shared with, a reporter from China’s state media offered material and financial support to the group’s owner. The Washington Post By the security officer involved in the case.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to share details of the ongoing investigation, said Chinese propagandists often pay Taiwanese influencers to spread stories that undermine the democratic process. Taiwan. Sometimes the goal is not necessarily to support a particular candidate, but to disrupt the election and “make it chaotic,” he said.

During the past year, China led to hundreds Local Taiwanese officials For Chinese cities. There, influence efforts are as obvious as giving out vouchers for streaming platforms iQiyi And instruct visitors to vote for pro-integration candidates, according to the prosecutor’s office. Taiwan.

These exchanges, in which Taiwanese officials is received in China The heavily subsidized trips, with the expectation that they will return with a pro-government message, have long been seen as a way for grassroots influence operations. China. This Taiwan authorities They are investigating 40 people in connection with these visits and possible election interference.

In other cases, the message was more subtle. This Chinese officials They asked their Taiwanese guests to remember that on both sides Taiwan Strait According to officials who participated in these exchanges, they are “a family”. In some, the Chinese hosts were careful not to say anything about the elections for the risk of jeopardizing these visits.

“They will say that the continent has high hopes that both sides Taiwan Strait can come together and everyone can sit and talk,” said a village head Taipei who made two trips China last year He spoke on condition of anonymity because he is among those under investigation.

“Everyone wants to force integration or infiltrate thinking. It’s just that some use more subtle methods and some use cruder methods,” he said.

Starts from 1st January. China Canceled preferential tariffs on 12 chemical compounds of Taiwan. On Tuesday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said it was studying the possibility of revoking other tariff concessions for agriculture, fisheries, machinery, auto parts and textiles, a move Chinese officials said would continue if PPD Maintains its “pro-independence position”.

at the same time, Beijing It offers carrot For others who show little loyalty China. In June, the Chinese authorities Companies resumed importing sugar apples from some companies, previously banned, after the mayor TaitungWhere the fruit is grown, you will visit China Together with the Vice President of KMT.

In December, China It will resume some of the group’s imports after it was banned in June. But imports will be allowed only from six individuals and one company, which the president visited China last month.

“The goal is to let voters know that they have economic ties China It is better that they vote for a candidate who (Beijing) prefers,” he said Chiu Yi-HungAssociate Professor of International Relations at National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University.

army of Chinathat People’s Liberation ArmyA military offensive has escalated nearby Taiwan In the past year to remind citizens of the promise of Beijing to “meet” with Taiwan By force if necessary.

Before the election, China The “grey zone” appears to employ new forms of tactics, aggressive measures that fall short of open conflict and are intended to intimidate. Since December, China Sent up at least 31 high-altitude balloons – similar to those discovered and shot down USA Last year – up to the airspace Taiwan. He Taiwan Ministry of Defense Description of Balloons “Cognitive warfare” intended to discourage 23 million inhabitants of Taiwan.

On Tuesday, days before polling began, China Launched a satellite that unexpectedly crossed south Taiwan Before entering space, according to Taiwan Ministry of Defense. The launch prompted a rare nationwide emergency alert, the English version of which mistakenly described the object in question as a “flyover missile”, alarming residents.

(c) 2024, The Washington Post