Where will it snow this weekend? The first major winter storm of the season is forecast for the US Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

(CNN) – A strong storm is pummeling parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic United States with the first dose of winter’s heavy snowfall and dangerous ice.

By Thursday morning, the highest chance of significant snowfall was over central Pennsylvania and southeastern New York state, as well as parts of the northeast interior, including southern and central New England.

That means cities like Washington, Baltimore, and New York could miss out on snow and instead experience more rain, a mix of winter precipitation, or both.

But only 80 kilometers can separate areas experiencing heavy snow from areas experiencing mixed rain or just rain, meaning small changes in storm track and timing will make a big difference.

Regardless of the storm’s eventual snowfall, a winter storm capable of disrupting travel is set to arrive this weekend. It comes from an active storm track in the Pacific, typical of an El Niño winter, which will send a series of storms across the United States next week.

A system responsible for possible wintry weather will cross the southern part of the US on Friday before moving eastward over the weekend.

This will mean cooler rain for much of the South and Southeast as the storm takes advantage of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Louisiana and Mississippi, still suffering from drought after a summer of extreme heat and lack of rain, are targeting what will likely be beneficial rains.

Rain will move eastward along the storm track, invading parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The storm could cause flooding problems in the south, especially in areas soaked earlier in the week, but its fast-moving nature should limit the potential for repeated rounds of rain.

The storm will move north toward the mid-Atlantic on Saturday and dump heavy rain and freezing rain over parts of the southern Appalachians and Piedmont. The main snow event in the Northeast will be Saturday night and Sunday, as the storm moves through the area and then moves away from the coast.

Strong winds are also possible, the exact intensity in certain areas will also depend on the track and intensity of the storm.

Despite the low chance of snow, if even an inch falls in major cities along the I-95 corridor, it will end remarkable snow-free streaks for some that have lasted nearly two years.

New York City has waited nearly 700 days to see an inch of snow in a calendar day. According to the National Weather Service, only 2 inches fell in Central Park in 2023 Snowiest calendar year on record. The same thing happened at Dulles International Airport in Philadelphia and Washington.

It is not as if the rains in the Northeast have abated. In mid-December, a powerful and deadly coastal storm left thousands without power and caused severe flooding across the region.

December 2023 was the warmest December on record for the contiguous US by a wide margin using Prism Climate Group data. It was 0.67°F (0.37°C) warmer than December 2021. pic.twitter.com/nhRL9j0O4G

— Brian Brettschneider (@climatologist49) January 1, 2024

But it’s becoming more common as global temperatures rise due to planet-warming fossil fuel pollution.

Much of the United States experienced a warmer than normal December. The warm temperatures made it difficult to find snow. As a result, snow cover, or land covered by snow, is at its lowest point in North America since 2005, according to NOAA data.

Snow forecast for some major metropolitan areas

Here’s what to expect in some major metropolitan areas, based on National Weather Service forecasts from Thursday morning.

Washington City and Baltimore: The highest chance of snow is north and west of I-95, where 1 to 3 inches could fall. Even higher averages are possible west of I-81.

Philadelphia area: The city center will be wet, but not covered in snow. The highest chance of snow is north and west of the city, where the Lehigh Valley could see 3 to 4 inches of snow, with more snow expected in the Poconos.

New York City Area: Less than an inch of snow is expected in the five boroughs and Long Island. North and east of the city, in the Hudson Valley, where 5 to 10 cm. Increases chances of falling. Similar totals are expected in coastal areas of Connecticut.

Boston Area: The downtown forecast may change due to increased uncertainty there. 10 cm to 15 cm is currently expected.