Can we survey in times of war?
Historian Emmanuel Todd spells out two surprises that experts did not anticipate when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began: “The resistance of Ukrainians is something we didn’t expect. Ukrainians are well equipped thanks to Russia’s help. Before the war, Ukraine was considered a failed state. However, I think Ukraine finally found a reason to exist in resistance. To Russia.” Another observation that Europe did not expect, according to the historian, is Russia’s resistance to economic sanctions: “We must remember that Bruno Le Maire announced that cutting SWIFT, the interbranch network, would hinder the Russian economy to its knees. , while our leaders should have known that this was not possible. David Turtree, in his work “The Return of Power”, published shortly before the war, explained that the Russians had prepared for it. If the historian admits that Russia experienced difficulties in accepting these restrictions, So he emphasizes the fact that they are not settled in a war economy, because “Putin has preserved the achievements of the past 20 years in returning Russian society to normalcy.”
Bernard Guetta, MEP, speculates on the short-term future: “The Russians have five months to win the war, because in five months, maybe 6, the Ukrainians will have real air cover for the first time. Military planes were promised by the West. I’m not saying this is a complete change, but it’s a change. There is a very important element. Second, if Putin does not achieve any significant success in the next five months, he will, of course, be forced to issue a new mobilization order in his own country. If this happens, the discontent that is growing at a lower intensity , discontent would risk exploding.”
Time harmony
58 minutes
At the end of this war, what future for NATO?
“It is very possible that NATO will be dissolved, but not at all because of the impact of a Russian victory. Donald Trump may dissolve NATO if he is re-elected next November. He has declared his ambition, not to formally dissolve, but to weaken the Atlantic alliance so much. Because many countries have turned to the United States in trying to reach a bilateral agreement with Washington. I think Donald Trump’s ambition will be to break up the European Union and actually make a deal with Vladimir. Putin is not only on the backs of the Ukrainians but the Europeans. declares Bernard Guetta. MEPs believe that the Atlantic Alliance is under threat.
