Ukraine: Russia could hold off another two or three years because of its armored vehicles

Are the Russians on the hook? Not so fast. We told you a few days ago: Artillery pieces are becoming rare on Russian soil, despite the war machine that is unloading hundreds of thousands of shells and multiple rocket launchers at full speed, with the help of North Korean factories. In fact, Moscow produces 250,000 projectiles for its army monthly, or 3 million rounds of ammunition per year according to recent CNN figures, but in February there were fewer than 5,000 artillery pieces on the ground to send to enemy positions, according to the Royal United Services Institute, the A London think tank cited by The Economist. A rather unbalanced report, a grain of sand that could have hindered the vigorous Russian advance since the capture of Avdivka.

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Ukraine – Russia: military planes of war

Massive Russian delivery

However, Moscow appears to be able to overcome logistical problems. This is evidenced by a recent study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), conducted by expert site Meta-Defense. The latter establishes that in two years of war, the Russians have lost 9,000 armored vehicles and more than a hundred fixed-wing aircraft, but can count on an arsenal of recoveries and production to support the ground effort. Thus, in 2023, the Russian military will have received 1,200 to 1,300 tanks and 2,400 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers provided by the defense industry.

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To establish these figures, the IISS study is based on the evolution of satellite images of Russian weapons storage areas. If, after two years of war, armor stocks have decreased since February 2022, this decrease stabilizes or even reverses. The arsenal consists mostly of Soviet-era vehicles: T-72, T-80, T-62 and T-55 tanks, as well as BMP-1, MT-LB and BTR-70 armored vehicles. , restored or even modernized. At the same time, production of new armored vehicles (including T-90M and BMP-3) is increasing.

T-90M tank on parade in Moscow. Alexander NemenovaFP

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So that the supply, in a time-only flow, is, of course, constant. The study’s authors also note that some combat-damaged armored vehicles are recovered and brought back to sorting and repair centers, as the battle lines slowly advance.

Stabilization of losses

Estimates from the study show that “Russia is capable of sustaining the same combat intensity as in the last two years, for at least two years, certainly three, and maybe even more if the volume of new armored vehicles produced by the Russian” industry increases, or if losses. were to fall”, Summarizes the meta-defense. At the same time, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces indicated on Monday March 25, according to Newsweek, that Russia had lost 640 soldiers in the last 24 hours: a significant decrease compared to just a year ago. A week, when Kiev claimed that daily losses of Russian troops regularly exceeded 1,000.

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Gloomy prospects for Ukraine, which has been wading through troubled waters since the start of the year. A situation illustrated by the loss of several villages in Avdiivka in February and Donetsk Oblast in the following weeks. As the flow of American weapons has dried up, Kiev has reported severe shortages of ammunition and artillery pieces. An imbalance that could defeat him, if Volodymyr Zelensky’s allies did not react quickly. “We have entered a product war” Gold “The outcome of Ukraine depends on how well each side is prepared to fight this war”A NATO source explained to CNN a few days ago.

A glimmer of hope on the horizon: the imminent arrival of missiles from a variety of sources, including the famous “stock” purchased by a consortium of nations formed around the Czech Republic, and, according to the Wall Street Journal, long-range ATACMS missiles (Army Tactical Missile System). But time is running out, and weapons are numbered.