The Russians continue to push west of Evdivka

Avadivka’s war continues. This Ukrainian fortress, located just ten kilometers from Donetsk, the capital of the oblast of the same name and a separatist stronghold since 2014, was retaken by Russian forces on February 17 after months of fierce fighting. for ten days. , it is to the west of Evdivka that the battle continues: the Ukrainians have not yet managed to stabilize the front and form a new line of defense strong enough to stop the Russian offensive, which is certainly slow, but which is not yet done. reached its peak in the region of Donbass.

In recent days, the Russians have succeeded in capturing the three villages of Sjeverne, Lastochkyne and Stepove. They form the first line five kilometers from Avadivka. Five kilometers further to the west – Tonenke, Orlivka, Semenivka, Berdychi – another line is currently being fought along with four other villages. It’s hard to tell where exactly the front passes, essentially marked by a gray zone. “Russian Armed Forces Confidently Moving in Multiple Directions” From the front, Russian President Vladimir Putin assured the nation this Thursday without saying much during his traditional address.

For his part, the new commander of the Ukrainian army, General Oleksandr Sirsky, announced on Telegram this Thursday that the Russian attack on Orlivka had been withdrawn. In recent days, Kiev has admitted to withdrawing its troops from two villages near Evdivka – mostly Severn and Stepov. According to DeepStateMap’s calculations, after the capture of Evdivka, the Russians have managed to capture approximately 40 additional square kilometers, one of which is in the context of OSINT (Open Source Intelligence). This is obviously very modest compared to the territory of Ukraine controlled by Russia (about 108,000 km), but even this progress is not without consequences.

New major risk

The ground erosion by Russian forces shows that the Ukrainians have not yet succeeded in stabilizing the front by erecting new fortifications to stop the enemy’s advance. Instead, they are forced to retreat slowly using braking maneuvers. In the short or medium term, the risk is that the Russians will manage to establish a new salient – like Popasna in 2022 that allowed the Russians to start the battles of Severodonetsk, Lysichansk and finally Bakhmaut. The Russians may specifically target the town of Pokrovsk, fifty kilometers northwest of Evdiyvka, a logistical node at the crossroads of two essential supply routes for Ukrainian troops in Donetsk Oblast. There is no sign that the Russians will succeed – they are less than a fifth of the way there – but the trouble for the Ukrainians is that between Evdiivka and Prokovsk, there is no city large enough to allow them to urbanize. A stronghold against the Russians. And apart from a few modest reliefs and minor wet cuts, the terrain is hopelessly flat for kilometres.

The evolution of the Russian offensive west of Evdivka must be closely monitored in the coming days. General Sirsky, who visited the front line in the east of the country, admitted that some commanders had reported their shortcomings. “Situational Awareness and Enemy Assessment”. “I have taken all measures to improve the situation on the ground, by allocating additional ammunition and material resources as well as necessary reserves.”Syrskyi explained, wanting to reassure.

line of defense

Still, his words implicitly underline the worrisome difficulties that the Ukrainian command has been warning political authorities about for months: the Ukrainian military is as short of men as it is of material and ammunition. Facing Russian forces who have regained the initiative. The front line from the start of winter. Ukraine would need to mobilize half a million men to replenish the front and allow rotation, many of the troops deployed in combat for two years. As for weapons, Western deliveries have dried up since the summer due to European delays and political gridlock in the United States.

Avdivka is not the only area of ​​the front where the Russians are seriously suppressing the Ukrainian system. In the Zaporizhia region, they attempted to recapture the Ukrainian salient of Robotine, a minor gain by the Ukrainians during their failed summer counter-offensive. The Russians have been demanding the entry of their forces into this small village, which has been in ruins for several days. Its loss would be deeply symbolic for Kiev. South of Evdivka, the Russians are also gaining ground near Marinka, where they have captured the town of Pobida. The push is threatened from the north by another Ukrainian fortress, Volhedar, which the Russians have tried unsuccessfully and at great cost to capture from the south in recent months.

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North of Avdivka, this time, the Russians pushed, without breaking, west of Bakhmut, where they directly threatened Ivanevsky’s area, beyond a canal, reaching the small town of Chasiv Yar, which served as a natural border. Ukrainians to protect Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the last two major cities in Donbass still controlled by Kiev. Therefore, for the Ukrainians, it is urgent to create the equivalent of the Russian “Saurovikin” line, these hundreds of kilometers of fortifications built several tens of kilometers deep in the territory of Zaporizhzhya, which the Ukrainians came across last summer.