According to the ESA blog dedicated to the mission, the chance of one of these pieces of debris hitting a person on the ground is less than one in a hundred billion. In other words, the risk to humans is 65,000 less than that of being struck by lightning.
According to the latest forecast of the European Space Agency (ESA), the European satellite ERS-2, which completed its Earth observation mission 13 years ago, should burn up almost completely in the atmosphere on Wednesday, apparently without danger to the people of Earth.
Operations on our planet, quite rare on ESA, began in 2011 to prevent the accidental destruction of this object in orbit by dispersing debris dangerous to active satellites and the International Space Station (ISS). ESA’s European Space Operations Center (ESOC) predicted the satellite’s final re-entry into the lower atmosphere at 11:14 GMT on Wednesday with an uncertainty margin of plus or minus 15 hours. This margin, which was still 48 hours ago a week ago, is explained by the fact that the machine falls naturally, by the force of gravity alone, and not in a directed way.
Thus it crosses the upper layers of the atmosphere which slows down its descent more or less, and also makes it difficult to predict where some of its debris may fall. Most of the 2.3 tonnes of ERS-2 is expected to burn up when it reaches the lower levels of the atmosphere on Wednesday at an altitude of about 80 km. “It is estimated that the largest piece of satellite that could reach the ground is 52 kg”, Henri Laure from the Earth Observation Directorate at ESA announced last week. According to the ESA blog dedicated to the mission, the chance of one of these pieces of debris hitting a person on the ground is less than one in a hundred billion. In other words, the risk to humans is 65,000 less than that of being struck by lightning.
ERS-2, a leading Earth observation satellite
On average, an object with similar mass to ERS-2 completes its days in the atmosphere once every one or two weeks, according to the ESA. Monitoring of the satellite during its last days in space is carried out by ESOC with European, German and American institutional partners.
The first Earth observation satellite, ERS-2 was launched in 1995 and placed at an altitude of about 800 km. In 2011, at the end of its mission, ESA brought it down to about 500 km, so that it then descended naturally and slowly towards Earth in just 13 years. Instead of the 100 to 200 years it would have taken if it had stayed at its initial height. Deprived of its internal energy (fuel, batteries, etc.), it presents significant risks of explosion and debris generation.
In July 2023, the European satellite Aeolus returned to Earth in a controlled manner from a lower orbit (300 km) than ERS-2. The wreckage of the machine fell into the Atlantic Ocean.
“Zero Scrap” Charter
ESA launched the charter in 2023 “Zero Waste” For space missions designed from 2030. “More than 100 organizations have announced their intention to sign the charter, including Airbus, Thales Alenia Space, Safran”.Quentin Verspiren, coordinator of the Space Security Program at ESA, said last week.
Debris from used satellites, rocket parts, and collision debris has accumulated since the dawn of the space age. A problem that has accelerated in recent decades.
According to ESA’s estimates, there are about a million pieces of satellite or rocket debris larger than one centimeter in orbit, which are that large. “Disable a spacecraft” In case of trauma.
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