Taiwan is about to elect its new president. What is at stake and how might China react?

(CNN) — All eyes are on Taiwan this Saturday, where voters elect a new leader under the shadow of an increasingly assertive China that has stepped up threats against the self-ruled island over the past eight years.

The world is watching not just who wins the election, but how Taiwan’s autocratic democratic neighbor will respond. Xi Jinping, the most powerful Chinese leader in a generation, has called Taiwan’s unification with the mainland a “historical imperative” to be achieved by force if necessary.

The last time Taiwan changed governments — when the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power in 2016 — Beijing cut off most communications with Taipei and significantly increased economic, diplomatic and military pressure on the island in the years that followed. , turning the Taiwan Strait into one of the world’s major geopolitical flashpoints.

China’s ruling Communist Party considers Taiwan part of its territory, though it has never controlled it. Although successive Chinese Communist leaders have vowed to eventually achieve “reunification,” Xi has repeatedly said that the Taiwan question “must not be passed down from generation to generation,” linking the mission to his goal of “national rejuvenation.”

“This election marks a change in leadership at a time when cross-strait tensions are high, and maintaining stability has become a major challenge,” said Amanda Xiao, senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group.

“Conflict in Taiwan is unlikely in the short term. But if it breaks out, the impact will be felt around the world,” Hsio said.

All three candidates presented themselves as the best option to avoid this disastrous situation, promising to maintain peace and status quo Which, according to polls, is what most of Taiwan’s population wants.

But the three men have very different visions of how to achieve that goal. They all cite the need to strengthen Taiwan’s defense capabilities to deter Chinese aggression, but they disagree on their policy priorities, particularly how to deal with Beijing.

Current DPP Vice President Lai Ching-te emphasizes strengthening Taiwan’s ties with like-minded democratic partners such as the United States and Japan, while maintaining his government’s position that Taiwan is already a de facto sovereign nation. An opinion that Beijing finds unacceptable.

Hau Yu-eh, of the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), is betting more on resuming dialogue and easing tensions with China.

Ko Wen-jae of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), for his part, has advocated a more “pragmatic” approach to finding “a new way out of the hostility between China and the United States,” though it is not clear. About what that means in practice.

Beijing’s response could vary depending on the election results, but experts say tensions could rise later regardless of who is in office.

Besides the threat from Beijing, livelihood issues such as low wages, high property prices and the slow growth of Taiwan’s economy will be key factors in determining the vote.

Taiwan’s vice president and presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Lai Ching-te, speaks during a campaign rally in Keelung, Jan. 8, 2024. (Credit: I-Hwa Cheng/AFP/Getty Images)

immediate pressure

China has made no secret of its preference in a close race, framing the election as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”

Beijing openly despises the PDP and Lai, who once described himself as an “activist for Taiwan independence”. However he has moderated his position to favor her status quoBeijing continues to denounce him as a dangerous separatist.

This Wednesday, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office warned Taiwanese voters to “recognize the grave danger of Lai Ching-triggering cross-Strait confrontation and conflict” and to “make the right decision at the crossroads of cross-Strait relations”.

A victory for Lai, who led the polls by a narrow margin, could quickly be met with economic or military pressure from China.

“In the short term, Beijing is likely to try to exert maximum pressure to set the terms of the next four years of cross-Strait talks,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub based in Taiwan. .

That could include “intense diplomatic rhetoric criticizing the incoming PDP administration, economic sanctions against certain exports, as well as an increase in military equipment in gray areas as a way to register Beijing’s displeasure”.

“Grey zone” strategy refers to aggressive state actions that fall short of all-out war, which China has increasingly used in recent years toward the South China Sea and Taiwan.

China may also reserve a strong response for later, if a victorious Lai delivers an inaugural speech in May that does not meet Beijing’s demands, according to Hsiao.

The level of advancement will be the focus of the world.

In August 2022, China staged massive war games around Taiwan to express its displeasure over then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. Beijing fired missiles into the waters around the island and simulated a blockade with fighter jets and warships, in its biggest show of force in years.

Taiwanese security officials said Thursday after a bilateral summit in November that they did not expect large-scale military action from China immediately, citing unfavorable winter weather conditions, problems with China’s economy and efforts by Beijing and Washington to stabilize relations. .

If Lai wins, it will be the first time in Taiwan’s democratic history that a political party has been elected to a third term in power, and will serve as a powerful signal that China’s heavy-handed tactics under Xi are not working to convince Taiwanese voters. Quit PDP.

But analysts say the PDP is unlikely to win a majority in the new legislature, which will also be elected on Saturday, and could lead to major policy hurdles, particularly on contentious issues.

“The control that the Legislative Yuan will impose on the new PDP presidency should give Beijing some comfort about what the Li government can do,” Hsio said.

Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih speaks to international reporters at a press conference in Taipei, Taiwan on January 11, 2024.

Stress on the road

Beijing’s preferred candidate is Hou of the KMT, which has traditionally favored closer ties with China.

Hou has blamed the DPP for provoking China and vowed to resume dialogue and improve economic ties with Beijing.

He has promised to revive a controversial trade deal with China, which sparked massive student-led protests in 2014 during the previous KMT administration.

His election may bring a temporary relief to tensions, but experts say it will not last.

“After an initial period of improvement in relations, Beijing will seek to make further progress in relations, whether in the form of new economic agreements or more political accommodation by the KMT government,” says Hsiao.

“And at that point, I think the Hou administration is going to have a very hard time selling that to Taiwanese voters. And that could raise tensions again,” Hsiao added.

Although Hou has clearly opposed Taiwan independence, he has also rejected China’s proposed “one country, two systems” model for unification. That offer has lost all its appeal in Taiwan following Beijing’s crackdown on freedoms in Hong Kong, which the former British colonial ruler ceded to China under a similar framework in 1997.

“Like mainland China and the United States, Taiwan must shoulder its responsibility and follow its own path to achieve peace and stability in the region,” Hou said in response to a question from CNN on Thursday.

He described his stance of rejecting both Taiwan’s independence and Beijing’s “one country, two systems” model as a “‘middle way’ that Taiwan must take.”

Even if Hau wins, cross-Strait relations are unlikely to be as friendly as they were during the years of former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou, when the KMT was last in power, experts say.

Ma has changed a lot over the years.

Amidst China’s threats, the Taiwanese public has firmly turned away from China. Less than 10% now support immediate or eventual integration, and less than 3% identify as primarily Chinese. As China and the United States increase in strategic competition, the geopolitical context has also changed dramatically.

Ko Wen-je, presidential candidate of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), greets supporters during a campaign event ahead of the election on January 11, 2024 in Taipei, Taiwan. (Credit: Ann Wang/Reuters)

Meanwhile, some of the TPP are advocating another “middle way,” presenting itself as a an outsider Political and a sensible alternative to the two established parties.

As a former mayor of Taipei, Ko promoted local ties with China, particularly with the city of Shanghai, saying “the two sides of the Straits are one family.”

But Ko is a “new face” in the great power competition between the United States and China, Sung noted.

If he wins the presidency, Taiwan’s relations with China and the rest of the world will take unexpected waters.

“Kono has a history of strategic ambiguity in its US-China policy, which will result in goodwill on both sides,” Sung said.

“Both Beijing and Washington may grant the incoming Ko Wen-Jee administration an initial grace period in which they will give it a significant benefit of the doubt. What happens from there depends on how the Coe administration manages its own foreign policy and its cross-strait policy.

— CNN’s Eric Cheung contributed reporting.