‘Super El Niño’ Is Here, But Will It Last? What awaits us in the coming months

(CNN) — The current El Niño is now one of the strongest on record, new data show, moving it into rare “Super El Niño” territory.

Scientists determine whether El Niño is present and the main indicator of its strength is sea surface temperature. And from November to January, temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where El Niño originates, were 2 degrees Celsius warmer than normal, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a threshold that has been exceeded only six times since records began. That means a very strong El Niño is going on.

But the strength of this so-called Super El Niño may not last long: It has peaked and is heading for a downward trend, said Michel L’Heureux, a climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center.

“At this point we are slightly ahead of peak (strength),” L’Heureux told CNN.

El Nino influences weather around the world, so its strength and disappearance will continue to affect the weather we experience in the coming months.

The stronger El Niño becomes, the more likely it is to influence global climate over time. But its impact is measured on a seasonal time scale and not in terms of individual weather events, L’Heureux explained.

Average conditions during an El Niño winter across the continental United States. CNN

A warmer-than-average winter with less snow in the northern US is one of these signs. This particular scenario is playing out this winter. Several states in the region experienced the warmest December on record and a generally warm January with negligible snowfall, continuing into February.

El Niño also manifests as a wetter-than-average winter in the southern US, as it often directs the flow of storms southward.

A severe drought in parts of the south was largely eradicated by frequent rains from storm systems this winter. And California was inundated by powerful atmospheric storms fed by rivers that caused record rainfall and hundreds of landslides.

El Nino is known to intensify the atmospheric river phenomenon along the West Coast.

“It is difficult to attribute El Nino to a single climate system or series of them. That said, it looks like there were some links to El Niño (with the California storms),” L’Heureux said.

An additional source of heat from warm waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean may have particular effects on weather patterns in the western parts of both Americas bordering the Pacific Ocean.

Recent devastating wildfires in Chile reflect the association with El Niño. This pattern is related to reduced rainfall in the northern part of the country, which contributed to widespread drought that left areas parched.

An aerial view of the devastation caused by a forest fire in the Valparaiso region of Chile on February 6, 2024. Javier Torres/AFP/Getty Images

According to L’Heureux, El Nino has also left its mark on temperature and rainfall patterns in several other continents, including South America, Africa, Australia and parts of Asia.

But L’Heureux cautions that not all extreme weather events in a warming world are directly attributable to El Niño.

“The effects of El Niño are no longer seen in isolation. There is definitely a climate change component,” L’Heureux said.

Human-caused climate change is increasing global temperatures, causing more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, El Niño is expected to go into a neutral phase during the spring. This means that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to return to near normal levels in the coming months.

But the center’s forecast goes even further, suggesting that ocean temperatures could drop below normal later this year, indicating “increasing La Niña potential,” the center said.

Depending on when La Niña materializes, this large-scale pattern change can have significant effects on how the rest of the year plays out.

Las Ninas often produce the opposite weather pattern of El Niño, including a more active hurricane season.

CNN’s Rachel Ramirez and Brandon Miller contributed to this report.