Reducing the deficit to 99.6 billion does not reassure experts

France’s trade balance is set to improve in 2023, even though it remains at a deficit of 99.6 billion. But this is only a return to normal, experts point out, after a very difficult situation, marked by a modest increase in energy sector prices in 2022.

According to figures published by the customs services, the balance of France’s trade balance on the exchange of goods for the year 2023, Wednesday February 7, is in a deficit of 99.6 billion euros. Thus the balance remains negative, but a clear improvement over the year 2022. Indeed, the deficit has reached a historic record of 162.7 billion euros in 2022.

The figure was explained by export values ​​that rose dramatically, particularly in the energy sector, where oil and gas prices exploded after the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The crisis recorded in terms of electricity and forcing the import of this energy also affected the entire import bill. In 2023, things have still improved significantly, even if the import bill remains high.

An improvement driven by a reduction in the amount of hydrocarbon imports

Thus, imports have decreased by around 63 billion euros in the last twelve months. Despite the persistence of certain tensions until the beginning of 2024, the improvement recorded after the decline marked the values ​​of energy imports with the gradual normalization of the world market. In 2023, in fact, it was a year in which the price of a barrel of oil returned to an average of about 80 dollars after reaching a peak of more than 100 dollars during the year 2022, during a recorded boom.

The tariff curve, and hence the value of gas imports, also follows a similar trend. This meant that the deficit on hydrocarbons was significantly reduced by the value of 25.5 billion euros. For example, France, in 2023, earned about 8.6 billion on the import of refined oil, the details of which our colleagues Figaro. Also, with the renewal of the nuclear fleet and the resumption of electricity production, which allowed France to become an exporter again, this energy balance becomes positive with a surplus of 11.3 billion euros.

How to achieve structural reform in equilibrium

Finally, ” The balance of energy goods improved by about 46.6 billion, or a 70% increase in the overall balance for 2023. “Furthermore, “The non-energy balance has remained stable since 2021, highlighting the role of energy prices in the deterioration of the French trade balance in 2022”.notes BNP Paribas senior economist Stefan Koliak.

Overall, this reduction in the balance sheet deficit is far from the result of a structural reform of the balance sheet, experts warn. Sylvain Bersinger, chief economist at Asters firm, quoted by the same source, puts forward his explanation for this chronic deficit: “It is with the decline in French manufacturing output that we find the source of the trade deficit, which is not a problem as such (the balance of payments is only slightly in deficit), but an incarnation of the difficulties of industry »It analyzes.