After a long period of extreme caution in Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has intensified its air support on the front in an attempt to capitalize on the victory at Avdivka in the east of the country. A risky tactic that has allowed Kiev’s armed forces to shoot down several enemy planes in recent weeks.
Russian aviation has just experienced an unusual black streak in Ukrainian skies: During the last two weeks of February, Kiev claimed to have shot down 14 planes, including several Sukhoi Su-34 and Su-35 fighter-bombers. If we add the two prized Beriv A-50 detection and command aircraft that fell just a few weeks into the war, the bill for Moscow starts to get steep.
These impressive figures put forward by Kiev, however, could not be independently verified. “When you have a victory like this, you have every interest in trumpeting it and presenting it in the most spectacular way possible. This is part of war propaganda and it would be wrong for Ukrainians to deprive themselves of it because it contributes so strongly to maintaining is. the morale of the troops and the population”, analyzes defense consultant Mark Chesillon.
Despite possible exaggeration by Kiev, military experts agree on one fact: Russian aircraft sorties have increased significantly in recent weeks. After suffering heavy losses in the first month of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian air force has long maintained its distance from the threat of Western anti-aircraft defenses deployed by Kiev. But Russia once again seems willing to take increased risks to get its pilots to support infantry on the ground.
“To achieve their victory at Avdivka, the Russians strengthened the role of aviation and today they are trying to continue this momentum,” suggests General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN. “Obviously, the more planes there are in the sky, the more likely they are to be shot down. Additionally, when pilots provide ground support, they are forced to descend at altitude and therefore offer a vulnerability that might give the Ukrainians an advantage. happens
If this campaign of Russian strikes turns out to be costly, it also seems to be paying off for the Russian military on the front. By getting as close to its targets as possible, Moscow’s air force maximizes the effectiveness of its powerful gliding bombs that equip its Sukhoi fighters. Capable of traveling long distances to the front lines, these guided munitions made it possible to limit the risk of Russian aircraft being shot down. Released with precision, they can easily destroy underground bunkers housing Ukrainian soldiers.
“Before the war, the Russian Air Force was not known for using guided missiles on a large scale like Western air forces. In fact, the Russians had a large stockpile of standard bombs called FABs. They built smaller deployable wings and added guidance kits. They made them more precise. makes”, explains Marc Chésillon. “These are bombs that weigh between 200 and 500 kg. Suffice it to say that when they hit the ground, they do a lot of damage.”
“This bomb completely destroys any place,” confirms Egor Sugar, a Ukrainian soldier who fought in Evdiyvka who is active on social networks. “All buildings and structures turn into a pit after just one of them falls.”
However, Ukraine is not excluded in this area, even though its stock of ammunition is very limited. In recent days, the Ukrainian Air Force has dropped its first French-made AASM Hammer glide bombs on Russian positions. In a video released on March 4, kyiv claims it used this type of bomb to hit a Russian supply depot in Kozachi Laheri on the left bank of the Dnieper River.
Hack’s trail
If the increased presence of Russian aircraft in Ukrainian skies partially explains the high toll of aircraft killed in combat in recent weeks, Kiev could also have taken the opportunity to risk deploying Patriot launchers closer to the front lines to “engage the Russians.” Predators,” Justin Bronk, a researcher at a Russian think tank, suggested to the BBC.
Among the anti-aircraft defense systems provided by the West since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the Patriot is considered the most expensive and sophisticated.
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The possibility of deploying Patriot batteries in the east, however, General Trinquand believes is unlikely because “the Ukrainians have very few and need them to protect their cities, especially Kiev. Additionally, ground attack aircraft are more vulnerable to short-range .Range anti-aircraft artillery. I’m thinking, for example, of the French SATCP system or the American Stinger.
Finally, another equally imprecise hypothesis was put forward by an Austrian analyst. In an interview by the Ukrainian daily Kyiv Post, Tom Cooper confirms that the navigation systems of the Sukhoi Su-34 and Su-35 were hacked to make them easy prey for Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses.
“When a Russian plane crashes, the Ukrainians rush to recover everything they can, especially the electronic parts, which could give clues on how to trick the Russian pilots,” explains Marc Chesilon. “All modern fighter jets have warning systems that alert them as soon as they are ‘illuminated’, i.e. seen by radar. A computer virus or jamming system can disable these systems “Russian pilots think they can fly safely. are filling in the sky but actually being targeted by missiles.”
Expensive strategy
In any case, Moscow seems determined to capitalize on its victory over Evdivka, even if it means sacrificing many pilots and Sukhoi fighter-bombers, which cost about $85 million a unit.
“Russian forces appear to have suffered an increased rate of air casualties in recent weeks to conduct glide bomb attacks in support of ongoing Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine,” said the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank. Tank, in an analysis published on March 3.
“After the victory at Avdivka, the Russians realize that their defensive position behind Ukraine is not well prepared and therefore they want to seize the opportunity to shake up the armed forces of Kiev,” believes Dominique Trinquand.
“The Russians are looking for a breaking point,” adds Marc Chesillon. “They don’t want to give the Ukrainians time to attach themselves. And so they continue to harass them, chase them, so they can’t form a strong defense line.”
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But can Russia afford such a costly strategy over time? British military intelligence said Russia still had seven more A-50s, but had “mostly grounded the fleet” to avoid further damage. According to the Ukrainians, air activity has decreased significantly since the end of last week.
Theoretically, the Russian Air Force still has room to spare. Before the start of the war it had a fleet of 1,500 military aircraft. According to analysts, the defense industry may also recoup some of its losses by the end of the year. Cited by the Tass news agency, Rostec’s boss, Sergei Chemezov, indicated last week that the defense group would resume production of the A-50 “because the Russian armed forces need it”. According to estimates, the Russian military has lost about 150 aircraft or helicopters since February 24, 2022.
In theory, the Russians still have sufficient means to carry out an offensive air campaign. Although a large number of Russian aircraft have been killed in combat in recent days, the figure is far from reaching the levels seen during previous high-intensity conflicts, recalls Mark Chesillon.
“We forget that but in eight years of war, the Americans lost 5,000 planes and helicopters in Vietnam, or two or three a day. During the Yom Kippur War, in three weeks of combat, 500 planes were destroyed or shot down, both on the Israeli side and on the Arab side,” “But today, when a plane is shot down, it is always a big event in the Western military, quite simply because they have lost the habit of war,” explains the military expert.
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