“If Washington says stop, that will be the only time Israel says no.”

Published on: 02/21/2024 – 9:57 pm

6 minutes

third time, The United States exercised its veto, Tuesday 20 February, on a text calling for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza at the UN Security Council. However, in recent times, Washington has shown differences of opinion with its Israeli ally on the conduct of this war. The Biden administration is particularly pressing Israel not to launch a military operation in Rafah, a city south of the Palestinian enclave where more than 1.3 million people are currently gathered, without a plan to protect civilian lives.

RFI: Is this American veto a sign that despite differences of opinion between the two countries, the United States’ support for Israel is unwavering?

Michael Oren: You have two policies that have remained largely unchanged. The first is the ammunition supply. And the Biden administration not only provided the ammunition, but expedited delivery by bypassing Congress. Another is to veto ceasefire requests in the Security Council.

But behind the scenes, the United States’ position on Gaza has changed. During a visit to Israel in January, The Secretary of State was very critical of Israel. It was an extraordinary moment. Because on October 8, 10, 11 or 12, the United States was on the same line as Israel: destroy Hamas. But America’s new position is to ensure that the events of October 7 never happen again.

It’s a very different line. And behind the scenes, the Americans were telling me that they thought that Israel’s goals were unrealistic, that there should be a diplomatic solution that would not completely destroy Hamas and involve the technocratic elements of Hamas. Those responsible for water and electricity, for example, within the Palestinian unity government. This is very different from Israel’s position, which remains: destroy Hamas.

How do you explain this American attitude toward Israel when, at the beginning of the war, the United States showed full support for the Israeli government?

There was an inflection point in late November, when the administration began speaking in two very different voices. On the one hand, John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council. He said he strongly supports the goal of destroying Israel and Hamas, while minimizing civilian casualties. For a while, President Biden sided with John Kirby. On the other hand, the State Department, and Secretary of State Blinken in particular, was increasingly concerned about the number of Palestinian casualties. He said many Palestinians have been killed so far.

And what happened, at least in 2024, is that the latter voice was eclipsing the former. And this is due to many concerns, especially domestic political concerns. Michigan is a key state in the 2024 election. However, it has a very large Muslim, American and Arab-American population.

Also readIsrael-Hamas War: Biden’s Popularity Freefalls Among Muslim Voters

Currently, differences are expressed especially on the question of Israeli military action against Rafah, a city that has become a refuge for more than a million Gazans.

Yes, the question of Israel’s siege of Rafah is now at the center of disagreements. Many hostages are there. The United States is pressuring Israel not to enter Rafah unless it plans to evacuate Palestinians from the combat zone. And they want to delay the operation in Rafah to continue negotiations with the hostages. From Israel’s point of view, this poses several problems. No one is interested in the internal situation in Israel, very strongly opposed to helping the Palestinians as long as Hamas holds hostages. And also for the people of the center – the center left. And there is still overwhelming support for taking up the fight against Hamas. Especially from the military, from the people who fight there. They say: Why do we fight? We will finish this fight. We have not fought for 130 days, our friends have not died for nothing ” And they are a very powerful electoral group in Israel.

Are these differences between the two allies normal in times of crisis or have they reached hitherto unknown levels?

We have been through very difficult times. In 1948, 1956 and 1973…in almost every war, the United States asked Israel to stop. And in each of them, Israel stalled. If Washington says stop, the question is whether Israel will stop this time. I think Israel will not stop. This would be the only time Israel would say “no” to the United States.

And what effect might this have on the relationship between the United States and Israel?

I am sure that will have a significant impact on the relationship with this administration. And it would reinforce the trend that, for more than a decade, has made support for Israel a partisan issue. We have always been proud to say that support for Israel is a bipartisan issue. Henceforth, the partisan divide will strengthen. It will be very difficult for pro-Israel Democrats to express support for Israel. This is a major threat to Israel, especially as we face the possibility of another front in the north.

And what do you think the Israeli government’s response should be?

I am no longer part of the government, so I speak as a private citizen. But if I were in the government, I would try to give the administration everything we can give them that doesn’t affect our security. For example, if the Biden administration wants to talk about a path to a Palestinian state, unlike the administration that a few days ago unanimously rejected that idea, I would say, “Okay, we’ll talk. We’re open to discussion. But it’s up to us.” “America wants humanitarian aid for the Palestinians. It is very difficult for us, really difficult. But I will try to go as far as possible to meet America’s expectations in this area. America plans to withdraw the Palestinians from the combat zone. wants to and I will do my best to make it happen. But if America says, “There will be an indefinite cease-fire as long as the hostage negotiations with Hamas continue,” I will say, “No, we can’t do that.”