How soon can Trump be assured of the Republican Party nomination?

Donald Trump This is on track to make this the shortest primary season in recent presidential history.

So far only two states have voted. But he has won both, and a look at the math and polls in the upcoming states suggests that Trump could win the nomination in mid-March, even if he is a former ambassador to the United Nations. Nikki Haley He says he will stay in the race and voting will continue until June.

The last time a candidate entered a competitive primary so quickly 2004. In recent elections, the nomination race in both parties has stretched into May or even June.

Trump is mathematically on track to secure the Republican presidential nomination enough delegates to become a party candidateAnd politically, everyone assumes that there are no viable competitors left who can beat him.

2,429 delegates are allocated in the Republican primary. To secure the nomination, a candidate needs to win 1,215 delegates, exactly one more than half of the total.

till now Only 62 are givenBut half of them have gone to Trump.

“If you look at the calendar and the number of delegates awarded, mathematically the earliest someone can reach 1,215 is March 12,” he said. Nicole SlingerA Republican consulting firm based in Iowa.

But that would require winning all the reps, and Even Trump can’t get the nomination that fast.. This is because in many states, whoever comes in second also gets delegates.

For example, South Carolina Republicans will award their 50 delegates to the winner. But Iowa and New Hampshire have proportional systems. Iowa gave Trump 20 of its 40 delegates as he received nearly half of the votes in last week’s caucuses. In New Hampshire, Trump won over 50% of the vote and received 11 of the state’s 22 delegates.

So the most likely outcome for Haley is that staying in the race will only delay Trump’s victory.

Trump’s campaign predicted even before polls opened that he could win the nomination in March, with a particularly strong showing. Super TuesdayMarch 5, which is when nearly 900 delegates are awarded in more than a dozen states.

It may soon become more difficult for Haley to make a convincing argument that she should stay in the race. He didn’t win what might have been his friendliest primary on the calendar.

“That’s all. “This is your only chance,” said the Republican strategist. Sarah Longwell, spoke about Haley in the New Hampshire primary before the results were announced. “He has to win in New Hampshire as there is any race.”

“Mathematically it’s not over by any means,” he said. Doug Haye“But politically it could be over very quickly,” said one Republican strategist.

Other Republican strategists believed that Haley could turn the race into a contest if he came within a few percentage points of Trump in New Hampshire, followed by the same margin in the South Carolina primary in late February, and so on. But at some point he has to start winning states to beat Trump in the delegate count. You may be running out of time.

“It could last until Super Tuesday,” said one strategist. “After that, it’s over.”

Haley would have Donors Who urges her to stay in the race for various reasons, just in case. As anticlimactic as these primaries seem, they can take some wild and unprecedented turns.

Trump faces some legal risks. In the spring, during the busiest part of the primary season, he could be tried on dozens of felony charges, some related to his efforts to stay in office after losing the 2020 election. Some polls suggest that election-related felony convictions may discourage some of his voters, but convictions likely won’t come during the primary season.

He’s also 77, which would make it Second oldest American president In history, and he has recently had some mental breakdowns, it is exacerbated by his attacks on President Biden’s age. Trump appears to be in good health, but both he and Biden are old enough for that Mental acuity and physical fitness are a cause for concern For voters (although Biden is more than Trump).

And the Supreme Court could weigh in at any time on whether Trump could appear on the ballot, given his role in the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.

All of this could create the seismic conditions in the Republican field that Haley needs to win. But as one Republican strategist put it, Hope is not a great campaign strategy.

© 2024, The Washington Post