Helicopter attack in Transnistria: Ukrainian operation or Russian “false flag”?

A video of a helicopter attack in Transnistria went viral on Sunday.

Authorities in this pro-Russian separatist region of Moldova blame Ukraine, which it denies.

What do we know about the responsibilities of each camp? TF1info takes stock.

In this information war, every new element should be treated with utmost caution. A rule is more correct when the statement risks setting fire to the powder on the frontiers of Europe. Faced with images of exploding helicopters, widely circulated since Sunday March 17, it is time to take precautions. Because the attack, attributed to Ukraine, took place in the hotspot that is Transnistria, the pro-Russian separatist region of Moldova. So what do we know about this operation? Is this a “preventive” strike from Kyiv or Russian staging to justify intervention in a region that has requested protection from Moscow?

Machine parked since at least 2003

The incident took place on Sunday morning. The first images released by pro-Russian separatists show the wreckage of the first helicopter, a Russian-made Mil Mi-8, with brief information. “An explosion caused a fire on the territory of a military unit in Tiraspol”The letter to the officials of this unknown state, officially called the “Moldovan Republic of Pridnestrovia” (PMR), made it clear that the incident was allegedly provoked. “By kamikaze drone attack”. Subsequently, other images were displayed, including a very high quality one of the incident filmed by a drone, with messages directly accusing Ukraine.

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A version echoed by all Russian propaganda outlets – especially in France – but quickly rejected by Moldova. “Following the review of the video footage and the exchange of information, we communicate that the incident in question is an attempt to spread fear and panic in the region”Chisinau authorities responded in a statement, without confirmation “No Attack” in the region. And as evidence, Moldova argues that the machine in question was not “Not in operation for several years now”.

A version supported by numerous visual components. Analysis of the machine revealed that the left side window of the cockpit was missing, supporting the idea that the aircraft was not in flight condition. Has it been like this for many years as Moldova says? To find out, we found the place where the helicopter was parked. According to our research, he was actually in the parking area of ​​this Tiraspol air base. However, browsing Google Earth’s archives, which have satellite data dating back to 2003, we find that this helicopter never moved one iota. As shown in the images below, the rotor blades are also locked in the same axis. So the machine has not been used for 20 years. Which dispels the pro-Russian thesis of a “preventive strike” carried out by Kiev: the helicopter was not a threat.

And what do we know about the strike? Pro-Russian separatists mention in their communications “Weapons launch from Odessa”. A version we were unable to confirm, despite the quality of the video. Although the image shows a drone flying over a helicopter and a fighter hitting the machine from the left side, it is impossible to identify the aircraft in question. Analyzing the direction of the shot is also difficult. As the military source pointed out to TF1info, the strike was not carried out by a shell, but by a remotely operated munition, which does not allow to draw conclusions on the origin of the shot.

Given the fact that Kiev has no apparent interest in conducting such a strike, there is no concrete evidence to accuse the Ukrainian armed forces. What about Russia? This is a theory introduced by Andrey Yusov. In the Ukrainian press, a spokesman for the Military Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry hypothesized that “Russian Provocation”. Because the possibility of a false flag operation is actually being considered. As a reminder, this technique, called “false flag” in English, involves taking actions that indicate an attack by the enemy, for a country or organization. And in the present case, several elements lend credence to this hypothesis.

False flag operation?

First of all, the speed of communication. As soon as the first images were transmitted, we observed the eagerness of the Russian reaction and the rapid activation of its relay even at the international level. Moreover, this is not the first time that Moscow has used this technique to legitimize intervention. This strategy is also described as a “Russian specialty” by experts. In 1968, for example, the Kremlin was already using its intelligence services to create “false flag” incidents to justify Soviet military intervention in Czechoslovakia.

Another more recent example, in February 2022. As Russia prepares for its invasion of Ukraine, pro-Russian leaders of the separatist regions of Donbas have warned of an infiltration in progress, on February 18. The media then, reading the metadata of the video in question, revealed that it had been recorded two days earlier. A technology reused in this former Soviet republic? If there’s nothing to prove it, the attack certainly looks like a boon for the Kremlin: it artificially raises the threat level. and legitimizes his role as “protector”.

Do you want to ask us questions or submit information that you don’t believe is reliable? Do not hesitate to write to us at lesverifiers@tf1.fr. Also find us on X: Our team behind the @verif_TF1LCI account.