Fitch should maintain France’s rating

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The American rating agency believes the government’s stated objectives are “increasingly out of reach” but France’s credit rating should not be downgraded.

The Fitch rating agency gave a bitter comment on the difficult French budgetary situation this Tuesday. Unlike Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s, it downgraded the French sovereign rating last year. ” The latest budget data confirms our decision to downgrade France’s credit rating in April 2023 given the importance of the budget deficit and debt burden. », analysts are welcome.

He takes the opportunity to provide some clarity on the content of his upcoming ruling, expected by the end of the month. “However, any further negative rating action would be contingent on a more significant deterioration of public debt, which we believe is unlikely, as reflected in the stable outlook,” The agency writes.

On Fitch’s side, it is therefore not a deterioration in its rating, but a possible downgrading of its outlook that Paris fears. The agency puts forward some arguments in this direction.France’s public debt level is the second highest among sovereigns in the “AA” category and we expect it to rise gradually to around 113% of GDP by the end of 2025, i.e. double the projected average for the “AA” category, which is 51.3%»Refers to its press release.

Like Fitch, Moody’s will give its verdict on France on April 26. A month later, Standard & Poor’s followed. His judgment may be more severe.

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