Erdogan’s party drops sharply in municipal elections

Correspondent in Istanbul

The first results of local elections show a significant decline in Erdogan’s party AKP, which has been in power for two decades. According to a partial count of the ballot boxes, this Sunday evening, March 31, the opposition CHP retained control of the two “flagship” cities it won in 2019, Ankara, the capital and Istanbul, which “Reese” wanted. Recovers expenses.

With 63% of ballot boxes counted at 10:30pm local time, according to Anadolu Agency, Mansur Yavas was on track to be re-elected with 58.93% against 33.15% for his AKP opponent. As for Ekrem Imamoglu, he was credited with 50.44%. Against 40.43% for his main opponent from the ruling party.

Race for the 2028 Presidential Election

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in power for more than two decades, nevertheless threw all his weight into the campaign, particularly in Istanbul, Turkey’s cultural capital where he was mayor in the 1990s.

Besides his numerous trips across the country, he campaigned openly with his former environment minister Murat Kurum, known for his lack of charisma, with whom he shared the spotlight on most of the posters.

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On Saturday, twenty-four hours before the polls opened, we saw him hold three meetings in Istanbul, before heading to the Hagia Sophia mosque to pray… on the eve of the last election.

For his part, Ekrem Imamoglu has redoubled his efforts to reach out to the population, bridge divisions within the opposition that may have disillusioned his voters, and remind crowds of his achievements that are less enthusiastic than five years ago. years, in a context where the authorities’ virtual control over the media left little room for them to express themselves to the public.

But the hitch of the Turkish “Reis” was not enough to discredit him, it seems, considering the first results.

According to experts, the re-election of the current mayor of Istanbul, the economic heart of the country, will already put him in the race for the 2028 presidential election.

In his first speech to the press, and considering the first results, he nevertheless preached caution. “We are happy with the photo we have in front of us, but we are waiting for the full results“, he told the press.

A turning point in voter choice

In Ankara, the political capital, Mansur Yavas, another big name in the CHP, is also heading for a comfortable re-election, making him another potential rival to Erdogan in the race for power.

Other strategic cities are also granted to the opposition. Izmir, the country’s third city and a traditional stronghold of the Social Democratic Party, is also in the hands of the opposition.

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The pro-Kurdish DEM party, for its part, is winning in major cities in the southeast with a Kurdish majority, including Diyarbakır, the unofficial capital of Turkey’s Kurds.

In the rest of the country, AKP candidates lead as expected in several large cities in Anatolia (Konya, Kayseri, Erzurum) and the Black Sea (Rise, Trabzon), which are President Erdogan’s strongholds.

On the other hand, and this would be a first, the ruling party appears to be on the verge of losing these traditionally pro-AKP regions, such as Giresun or other cities such as Amasya and Kastamonu on the Black Sea.

If these results are confirmed, it will be a real turning point in voter choice.

“Like Vengeance”

In total, 61 million voters – out of a population of 85 million people – cast their ballots nationwide this Sunday for their mayors as well as municipal councilors, district mayors and muhtars (neighborhood heads).

Despite political fatigue (Turks are in their ninth election in ten years) and a lack of enthusiasm in the context of authoritarian drift and economic recession, a significant voter turnout (76%) finally proved their willingness to express their growing discontent.

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“The Turkish population saw this election as revenge», observes political scientist Celine Senock.

According to the first results, the good scores of the new Islamist party Yeniden Refah reflect the approval vote expressed by the general electorate of Erdogan’s party. “AKP failed to look at the new generation that grew up in big cities and got higher education”, Sözcu observes analyst Ibrahim Uslu on the television set to explain these changes. Furthermore, he believes, “A section of its electorate no longer sees itself in the party’s authoritarian and ultra-nationalist turn, which was initially centered on neo-liberal values”..