The study, conducted jointly with Inserm and Inria by researchers from the University and Bordeaux University Hospital, estimates the effectiveness of health measures implemented during confinement in March 2020.
How many lives have been saved due to incarceration? How many people could have been saved if it had been implemented earlier? Did the vaccine arrive on time, was it effective? It is these questions, and many others, a study whose results are published in the journal Epidemic This month of March 2024, tries to provide answers.
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What is the theory of study?
Conducted in collaboration with Inserm, Inria, and researchers from Bordeaux University Hospital, the study applies a mathematical model to French public health data to measure the health impact of different scenarios (previously established, or not at all; no curfew; rapid vaccines… ) in terms of number of deaths or hospitalizations.
The study focuses on the period between March 2020, the beginning of confinement, and October 2021, i.e. a few months after the restrictive measures and the end of the first vaccination campaign. As a result, the measures were more effective because they were restrictive.
For what results?
According to the researchers, the first confinement would have reduced transmission of the virus by 84%. The figures match other similar studies done by the WHO.
An 8:00 pm curfew would have reduced transmission by 48%. This is much worse than the situation at 6:00 pm (-68%). But it is more effective than closing schools, which would have reduced transmission by only 15%.
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According to the researchers, vaccination has also proved to be very valuable. Starting with Rodolphe Thibaut, professor of public health at the Bordeaux Population Health1 Research Center and head of the study. He explains that according to the mathematical modeling they applied, the no-vaccine scenario would involve 159,000 more deaths in France – compared to 116,000 according to official figures – and 1.48 million additional hospitalizations, three times more than the country experienced. .
What conclusions can be drawn?
In contrast, a vaccine coming earlier, i.e. a long quarter rather than nearly a year after the outbreak began, would have averted more than 70,000 deaths. Similarly, a lockdown implemented even a week earlier would have saved 20,000 additional lives.
For the Bordeaux researcher, the results of this simulation should help decision-makers make the right choices and better anticipate measures to be taken in the event of a new epidemic. “The onset of the epidemic is exponential, (…) these results can contribute to quick decision-making in terms of epidemic resurgence,” believes Rodolphe Thibaut.
