Reunion still on Hurricane Orange Alert. Belal is now a tropical cyclone and is now moving at a speed of 13 km/h.
Reunion still on Hurricane Orange Alert. Belal continues its continuous intensity phase. The system reached tropical cyclone stage at 7 am local time this morning, a little more than 300 km to the northwest.18.7 South / 53.4 East). Expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone stage over the next 24 hours, a system will gradually approach the Great Mascarenes from the west-northwest. Its speed decreased slightly: 13km/h towards south-southwest.
Belal should therefore be a very dangerous cyclone with strong winds near the heart of the event as it approaches the Sister Islands and especially Reunion, Sunday night into Monday and during the day. The uncertainty on the exact path is still of the order of 100 to 120 km, but the probability of passing in the vicinity of Reunion Island is significant.
For Reunion Island, the possible path of the intense heart of the meteor less than 100 km from the island during the day on Monday. Under the currently selected scenario, the island is potentially exposed to the impact of a major cyclone, with the possibility of damaging winds. Whatever happens, significant impacts related to high winds, heavy rainfall and cyclones are expected, even with a passage of 50-100 km from the island.
Mauritius is expected to experience very bad conditions in terms of wind, rain and gusts from Monday or later overnight, even though the likelihood of a direct impact of the cyclone’s heart on the island is lower than in Reunion.
Here is the forecast for the intensity and position of this low pressure system in the coming days:
severe tropical cyclone,
01/15 at 4 AM local time, centered at 20.4 South / 54.1 East.
tropical cyclone,
At 4 AM local time on 01/16, centered at 21.7 South / 57.0 East.
tropical cyclone,
Center located at 4 AM local, 22.6 South / 60.1 East on 01/17.
tropical cyclone,
Center located at 4 AM local, 22.8 South / 62.6 East on 01/18.
tropical cyclone,
Center located at 4 AM local on 01/19, 22.5 South / 63.2 East.
