An extended war in the Middle East would be a disaster, but it can still be avoided

(CNN) — Concerns are growing daily that the flames of war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza could spark another full-scale war in the Middle East.

“We feel it and we fear it,” Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib told CNN’s Christian Amanpour this week. “We don’t want any escalation of war (…) We don’t like a regional war because it’s dangerous for everyone. Dangerous for Lebanon, dangerous for Israel and the countries around Israel,” he said, adding, “A regional war is bad for everyone.” .”

But the only thing that can prevent such a tragedy is that a further extended conflict cannot be in the vital national interest of any of the major powers in the region.

And even as major states and extremist groups appear to be moving toward the brink, there is still hope that the economic, political, and military consequences of escalation will be so severe that they stop short of getting there.

Almost every day brings another violent incident. This Thursday, for example, the United States launched an attack in Baghdad that killed a leader of an Iranian-backed militia that Washington blames for attacks against American military personnel in the region. US troops in Iraq and Syria working to contain ISIS are frequently the target of rocket and drone attacks by Tehran’s proxies.

Fighting between Israel and another pro-Iranian group, Hezbollah, is intensifying across the border in Lebanon. In another ominous sign, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant told US Ambassador Amos Hochstein on Thursday that time was running out to create a “new reality” on Israel’s northern border that would allow residents to return to their homes. Meanwhile, Israel is suspected of attacking senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut, sparking anger among Hezbollah leaders who control the area where he died.

In another alarming incident, US forces this week sank three Houthi rebel ships in the Red Sea following a series of attacks on commercial vessels. Central Command said the US helicopter was attacked first and acted in self-defense. The United States and about a dozen allies have launched a maritime task force to protect commercial vessels along critical shipping routes in the region after some shipping companies sent their ships on the longer, less economical route around Africa.

This week’s double bomb attack near the grave of former Iranian intelligence chief Qassem Soleimani – claimed by ISIS – has meanwhile shaken an already tense region and could increase internal pressure on Iran’s government as it plans further moves in the Middle East. is

A woman looks out the window of a house in front of the house where the displaced Palestinian Jabalih family was taking shelter after being hit by Israeli bombardment in Rafah, southern Gaza, on January 3, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Israel. Palestinian extremist group Hamas. (AFP Photo)

Why avoid widespread war?

Many of the region’s most powerful powers—including Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah—may be most interested in preventing high levels of tension before war. However, the concern for the United States is that all this playing with fire could trigger another conflict in the Middle East, which could drag the Americans down. It’s a scenario the Biden administration is desperate to avoid, especially in an election year.

“There are no strategic drivers for major regional or external actors to trigger a regional war, if only because the objectives of such a conflict would be unclear and would immediately alter their significant political and economic stability,” said Norman Rule, former director. Of US National Intelligence for Iran, to CNN’s Jack Tapper: “At the same time, Iran and its proxies have multiple incentives to maintain and increase the intensity and frequency of current actions against Israel.”

“The concern should be that any of these activities create an event that requires retaliation or complicity by other actors who then take advantage of each other, leading to the traditional conflict that we all want to avoid.”

The situation is very treacherous as rapid deterioration can occur on any front at any time. Hezbollah has thousands of missiles that can target Israeli civilians, meaning intense combat can quickly become very dangerous. A mass casualty attack by Iranian proxies against US forces would create political and military imperatives for President Joe Biden to take stronger military action than he has so far taken. If a US or allied ship is seriously damaged in the Red Sea, Biden will face similar decisions. And this week’s entry of an Iranian destroyer into the Red Sea raises the possibility of a miscalculation with rival navies operating closely in troubled waters.

The scale and brutality of Hamas’s actions and Israel’s response, which has pulverized large swaths of civilian neighborhoods in Gaza, set off a cascade of events spanning the Middle East’s fault lines. The subsequent setbacks ended a period of relative calm in the region, during which the Trump and Biden administrations and their allies sought to forge closer ties between the Gulf states and Israel. The resulting tensions appear to have dashed White House hopes for a tacit, informal reduction in hostilities with Iran, although Biden’s political enemies accuse him of not being tough enough on the Islamic Republic and its nuclear program.

A geopolitical circuit breaker?

Key actors’ interest in conflict avoidance can act as a circuit breaker. Given the potential cost of a regional war and the global economic, military and political consequences it would cause, every power has good reasons to avoid reaching that point:

Israel He is already embroiled in a massive war in Gaza, which his government says will drag on for months. A full-scale war with Hezbollah could potentially subject Israeli civilians to more bombardment than Israeli cities suffered from Hamas rocket attacks last year. In that sense, the attack on Arori — which Israel was behind, a US official confirmed to CNN on Wednesday — could be a bet that it would not provoke a large-scale Hezbollah response. Yet at the same time, while the rest of the world worries about an escalation of the conflict, Israeli leaders believe they are already effectively involved in a regional war, given the multifaceted threats they face.

USA He’s intensifying a strategy he’s been using for weeks: trying to keep the situation from spiraling out of control. Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to the region again, facing growing pressure to cool tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in a situation in which Hezbollah-dominated Lebanon fears a catastrophe that could worsen its already fragile political, economic and humanitarian situation. can do American forces — in Syria, Iraq and at sea — appear painfully exposed. As for Iranian proxies, the Biden administration wants to restore a level of deterrence without activating a regional powder keg.

Washington And its allies also just issued a statement warning Houthi rebels in Yemen that if they continue attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, which is vital to the global economy. CNN’s Natasha Bertrand and Kevin Liptak reported Thursday that the White House is running out of patience with the rebels. But direct attacks on their ground launch sites would not only drag allied forces deeper into the conflict, they could also threaten a ceasefire that would halt Yemen’s bloody civil war. Biden is in a political bind. Republicans consistently accuse him of being too soft on Iran and its proxies. But any worsening of the regional situation also underscores GOP claims that the 81-year-old Democratic president lacks the ability to lead. The risk for Biden is that the last 20 years will be filled with repeated failures by the United States to impose its will on the Middle East. Emphasizing American power is easier said than done.

Iran You can have more leverage by using your wider network of groups Proxy Imposing a lower level of costs on Israel and the United States than if they were plunged into direct conflict. The latter could prove militarily and economically unstable and increase political pressure on the clerical regime, which was already mounting after the bombings. But there is also the fear that such political tensions will pressure leaders who believe that a more aggressive stance abroad will alleviate problems at home. Just 15 months ago, Iranian clerics were facing a wave of anti-government protests sparked by the death of a woman in the custody of the country’s feared morality police.

Wali Nasr, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told CNN’s Becky Anderson on Wednesday that he is very concerned about the current tensions. But he added: “I don’t think the Iranians want to escalate the conflict,” while noting that some in Iran believe Israel is trying to provoke Iran into direct confrontation. “I think the calculation, at least among the Iranians, Hezbollah and probably other governments in the region, is that Israel doesn’t necessarily, that the United States doesn’t want a big war. President Biden doesn’t want a big war,” Nasser said.

That calculus could change if Washington can dissuade Israel from escalating the conflict, he said. The attack on the Hamas leader in Beirut, which the United States said it had no prior knowledge of, appeared to be a risky move by Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. After calls by the White House to scale back the operation in Gaza, which have been repeatedly rejected, it risks worsening an increasingly dangerous relationship with the United States.

Hezbollah is the most powerful political actor in Lebanon. It is effectively an extension of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. While it has a large arsenal of rockets aimed at Israel, its power could be significantly reduced in the event of a full-scale war. A degraded Hezbollah would mean a significant reduction in Iran’s regional influence. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned on Wednesday that the death of Hamas leader Arori would not go unpunished, and that the response would be “unlimited” if Israel went to war in Lebanon.

But Lebanese Foreign Minister Bou Habib told CNN he believed the militia group would stop short of escalating the war with Israel. “We have many reasons to think that this will not happen, that they (and) we do not want, as Lebanese, all of us, we do not want any war,” he said. “It’s not like we can order them. We don’t pretend that, but we can convince them. And I think it is working in this direction.