Warning report on shell production

It is urgent. When Emmanuel Macron visits Ukraine in February, the promised arms delivery will begin on Tuesday evening, the head of state insisted. During his press conference, he mentioned 40 scalp missiles and several hundred bombs, possibly modular hammer weapons, i.e. guidance kits that allow conventional bombs to be converted into more precision weapons. and a range of 70 km. Quantities may seem limited. But the French stock of missiles is limited and at the end of their life. SCALP will be replaced by the FMAN/FMC program later in the decade. In Ukraine, no matter what, every shot counts. With great accuracy, the scalps, like their counterpart Storm Shadow, allowed the Ukrainians to effectively strike the Russian rear.

However, the collapse of Ukraine cannot be ruled out. The balance of power has weakened, due to the lack of ammunition, Ukraine has suffered. Returning from a trip to Poland and Ukraine in late December, a report released Wednesday has senators on the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee sounding the alarm. ” Western aid is running out of steam and the situation is becoming increasingly critical », announced Commission President Cédric Perrin (LR). ” The group remains on the Russian side. Number of troops between May and December 2023 (Russian) The front would have increased by 20% and the number of tanks and artillery pieces by 60% », observe the senators in their report, informed by meetings at the highest level in Kyiv. The tone is deliberately alarmist to make public opinion aware of the issue and the threat. However, according to a French military source, it is estimated that Russia does not have the means, for the moment, to resume the offensive.

A further imbalance is no less alarming if it persists over time. Ukrainian army Firing between 5000 and 8000 shots (155 mm shell) Every day when Russia fires 10,000 to 15,000 rounds », suggested Senator Perry. ” Ukrainian authorities have made the production of ammunition a priority. If the domestic production of ammunition has increased twenty times since 2022, it is very inadequate. », underscores the senatorial report. Ukraine still depends on its patrons. 2024 is turning out to be a crucial year. “National and European production is extremely low, the established economy is not living up to expectations“, warned the senators.

” The war economy »

” In France, we have the capacity to make 20,000 155mm shells per year », worry the senators. Just a few days into the war…
” We are paying for 30 years of deindustrialization », lamented Cedric Perrin, regretting the lack of reaction from the government. ” The war economy » There is no announcement by the executive. The senator questioned the insufficient level of orders from the state as well as the industrial limit for production. Regardless of the number of production lines, the required chemical ingredients remain a bottleneck.

The crisis is not just French. European Commissioner Thierry Breton assured that the European pledge to provide 1 million shells was slow to be fulfilled even if the Union could achieve it. in the spring ” In 2025, he assured that Europe will be able to produce 1.3 million shells. ” It is up to the member states to ensure that this product goes to Ukraine », he added during the meeting with the press. The temptation to rebuild national stocks is strong.

Other western countries have increased their production. ” The American government decided to increase its production of artillery ammunition sixfold, while the United Kingdom awarded several large contracts to its manufacturers and Germany ordered 150,000 rounds of artillery ammunition from Rheinmetall. », explain the French senators in their report. ” Nexter estimates that a purchase guarantee of 15,000 shells would be appropriate to sustain the sector and enable a rapid ramp-up of production to 40 or 45,000 shells. In the long term, the KNDS/Nexter Group is targeting a production capacity of 100,000 shells and is still seeking further perspective on state mandates. “, they assure. ” It is urgent that the state plans and finances the multiplication of the ammunition production chain to prepare for high-intensity conflict and increase deliveries to Ukraine. », he concludes in one of his recommendations. ” The urgency is to be able to produce millions of shells per year and sufficient numbers of bombs and missiles. We are far from it », they insist.

France, the leader in artillery

The question of ammunition delivery should be at the heart of the upcoming discussions between France and Ukraine. The first meeting of the “Artillery Coalition” was scheduled for Thursday in Paris. To make their assistance more effective, supporters of Ukraine, united in the Ramstein group, divided responsibilities: aviation, infantry, air defense, etc. France is the leader in artillery. If this meeting is confirmed, France may announce the delivery of new Caesar cannons to Ukraine and the training of new operators. This self-propelled artillery gun has proven itself on the battlefield. But the logistics around them remain a challenge. ” The (senatorial) delegation’s attention was drawn to the importance of spare parts, especially tubes for artillery systems, which would be desirable to be able to produce directly in Ukraine. », present the senators in their report. The rate of fire tests the artillery tubes faster than the manufacturers anticipated.