France-England in 6 Nations: The crazy scenario that would allow the French XV to beat Ireland at the post and win the tournament
The Blues face the English in Lyon this Saturday 16 March (9pm) as part of the 5th and final day of the competition.
“Of course there will be a ranking: whether it’s second place, or potentially first place, it’s important to be at the top of the table.” Comments signed Gregory Alldritt, Friday 15 March, on the eve of France-England in Lyon, the last match of the 2024 6 Nations tournament.
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“Even first place?” No, the Blues’ rugby captain was not wrong in his calculations. A final victory in the competition is still possible for the Tricolour. But what a (crazy) sight knowing that at the start of this last day, the French are 4th out of 6 with 11 points, or 5 units behind the Irish leaders.
It must be said: the probability is small. But the scenario exists.
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France should beat England first (second with 12 points) and a big points difference and offensive bonus (4 tries scored).
Why outrageous bonuses? To get an extra point in the ranking and therefore a total of 16 times like Ireland.
Why the big point gap? To compensate for the extent of the difference in points recorded between the two selections (+80 for Ireland, +4 for France). It is in fact on normal goal average that two nations are decided in the event of a tie in the rankings according to tournament rules.
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At the same time, Ireland would lose at home to Scotland and by a large margin. Clover’s XV have not lost at the Aviva for 3 years.
Finally, if either of these two scenarios were to happen, France would have to manage to win by at least 1 point more than what Scotland could have achieved against Ireland. Reason: Both teams currently have the same points difference (+4).
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Mathematically, the title is therefore possible for the Blues. But let’s not forget that Charles III’s subjects also have a chance to be crowned in Lyon this Saturday. In any case, the French will be set for kick-off as the other nations will have played first: Wales-Italy is scheduled for 3:15 pm; Ireland-Scotland at 5:45 pm