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France-England in 6 Nations: The crazy scenario that would allow the French XV to beat Ireland at the post and win the tournament

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The Blues face the English in Lyon this Saturday 16 March (9pm) as part of the 5th and final day of the competition.

“Of course there will be a ranking: whether it’s second place, or potentially first place, it’s important to be at the top of the table.” Comments signed Gregory Alldritt, Friday 15 March, on the eve of France-England in Lyon, the last match of the 2024 6 Nations tournament.

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“Even first place?” No, the Blues’ rugby captain was not wrong in his calculations. A final victory in the competition is still possible for the Tricolour. But what a (crazy) sight knowing that at the start of this last day, the French are 4th out of 6 with 11 points, or 5 units behind the Irish leaders.

It must be said: the probability is small. But the scenario exists.

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France should beat England first (second with 12 points) and a big points difference and offensive bonus (4 tries scored).

Why outrageous bonuses? To get an extra point in the ranking and therefore a total of 16 times like Ireland.

Why the big point gap? To compensate for the extent of the difference in points recorded between the two selections (+80 for Ireland, +4 for France). It is in fact on normal goal average that two nations are decided in the event of a tie in the rankings according to tournament rules.

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At the same time, Ireland would lose at home to Scotland and by a large margin. Clover’s XV have not lost at the Aviva for 3 years.

Finally, if either of these two scenarios were to happen, France would have to manage to win by at least 1 point more than what Scotland could have achieved against Ireland. Reason: Both teams currently have the same points difference (+4).

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Mathematically, the title is therefore possible for the Blues. But let’s not forget that Charles III’s subjects also have a chance to be crowned in Lyon this Saturday. In any case, the French will be set for kick-off as the other nations will have played first: Wales-Italy is scheduled for 3:15 pm; Ireland-Scotland at 5:45 pm

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