Finally! After several quarters of denying reality, Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire has just revised his growth forecast for 2024. According to him, the annual increase in French GDP will thus be 1% compared to 1.4% this year. Announced with much fanfare since last summer. This estimate, however, risks being wrong to the extent that leading indicators of French economic activity suggest growth of around 0.5% according to our estimates, 0.9% according to the IMF and 0.6% according to the OECD.
But, beyond the dimensions of these assumptions, which can, by definition, be corrected, this change of tone on Bercy’s part raises a fundamental question: why such a change of heart today, when just a few weeks ago, we were assured that everything was possible? Was the world going well?
1. A recession has been confirmed and leading activity indicators show it will continue to suffer at least until next summer. After rising from 7.1% to 7.5% in 2023, the unemployment rate will therefore worsen. From then on, more and more French people could not sustain an overzealous speech as they became uncertain.
2. While they have all made significant efforts to avoid the slippage of their public finances and their debts, the countries of the European Union and especially the countries of the Euro Zone can no longer tolerate France’s behavior (…).
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