Will stopping Russian exports raise prices at the pump?

Future price hikes at the pump? Russia has decided to ban gasoline exports for a period of six months starting this Friday, March 1. This was the purpose of the decision “freeze” Prices in the domestic market may legitimize certain fears regarding the supply of black gold. In 2022, war breaks out in Ukraine and all the consequences that follow – sanctions against Moscow, for example – in oil prices like never before. And this is for a simple reason: raw material markets do not appreciate uncertainty, and above all, because Russia is one of the main producers and exporters of oil in the world.

The fact is that there is no need to worry in France today. Europe no longer – in theory – imports crude Russian oil, any more than diesel or gasoline, due to an embargo imposed after the war in Ukraine. in volume, “Therefore there will be no impact on fuel supplies in France”, assures Olivier Gentois, President of Ufip Énergies et Mobilités. But a reduction in the volume placed on the market could, through a domino effect, increase world prices.

“When these announcements are taken seriously, they immediately increase the price of the barrel”, points out Francis Pousse, representative of service station owners-operators in Mobilians. gold, “The market hasn’t turned around yet”, observes Olivier Gentois, who points to crude oil steady at $83 a barrel. Russia above all seems to want to deter Ukrainian attacks rather than disable part of its gasoline production capacity. “To panic the markets”Analyzes energy expert Jean-Pierre Favenec.

A lazy plea that pleads in favor of the status quo

It is above the behavior of other big exporters, such as Saudi Arabia, which can change the situation, underlines Francis Paus. “Will they choose to increase their production quotas or raise prices? Not sure if the state of the world economy will allow them to choose the other option: demand is a bit sluggish, they have to be careful.

Three experts are rather reassuring. “It is only a suspension of gasoline exports, not crude oil, underlines Jean-Pierre Favenec. It’s a lot less annoying.” Especially since Russia’s exports are only a drop of oil on the gasoline market, Olivier Gentois points out: “They mainly export diesel.” Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Energy, Alexander Novak, assured that a ban on diesel exports – as was the case at the end of 2023 – was not an option on the agenda.