Last week, while reading the always-odd 40 Hall of Famers predictions my colleague Mike Petriello posts each season, I did a double take when he included Blake Snell as a possibility. Black Snail? The guy who currently has fewer career innings than Danny Duffy and Matt Moore? Snell had his moments, but… Hall of Fame? But then Petrillo’s article reminded me:
If you win three (Cy Young Awards), you’re in, and is it that hard to imagine that both (Jacob) deGrom and Snell could have just one better season? And if they do, can you really leave them?
And he is absolutely right. If Blake Snell wins another Cy Young, and it’s not a crazy idea, since he just won his second, he’ll look destined for the Hall of Fame. After all, as Petriello points out, everyone with three or more wins is there (except for the upcoming three active pitchers and Roger Clemens, who is out for other reasons). Black Snail! Hall of Fame! Who would have thought?
All of this to say, while there were some doubts about Snell’s free agent case this offseason, mainly his lack of innings pitched, his surprisingly high walk total and concerns that he wouldn’t always be able to get out of tight spots like that. Last year, he is still a fantastic pitcher. The disparity between how Snell and his agent Scott Boras (who compares him to Randy Johnson) view his market and how MLB teams view his market is the reason he hasn’t signed yet. But someone will sign him and that club will be better off for doing so. And you never know: maybe he’ll wear his hat on a Hall of Fame plaque someday.
But who will actually sign? Here is a ranking of Snell’s potential suitors, most likely to least likely.
1. Angels
Look, the Angels have to spend their money somewhere after Shohei Ohtani is gone, and this could be the perfect match. Snell is a West Coast guy (from the Seattle area) who would probably fit better in Anaheim than the Bronx, and obviously the need in Anaheim is huge. Would Snell be willing to commit half a decade or more to a team that doesn’t seem to have a clear path to compete? If there is enough money on the table, I can definitely consider it. Honestly, one of the reasons the snail is such a polarizing agent is that it has no clear destination. So this is a pretty good general assumption compared to others.
2. The Yankees
Is it possible that the only reason lefty Jordan Montgomery, another free agent, seems like a better fit than Snell in the Bronx is because he’s already pitched there? If Snell goes out and wins the American League Cy Young Award for the Yankees, trust me: the bleacher creatures will love him. Pairing Snell with Gerrit Cole would give the club a high-level pairing and a bit more certainty as it waits to see what Carlos Rodon can offer this year. Sure, the Yankees will have a few more left-handed presences, and if the contract is too long, they could try to keep Juan Soto long-term, but they need to win this year. Snell will certainly help them achieve that.
3. The Dodgers
As long as they have roster spots available, we’ve learned they’ll spend to fill them. Snell would be exactly what the Dodgers need in 2024, though it’s certainly debatable whether that’s exactly what they need in 2030 given that a longer contract would keep him in Los Angeles. But the only glaring weakness the Dodgers have right now is starting pitching, albeit much less than at the start of the offseason. Making Snell your, say, third starter would go a long way toward eliminating the weakness entirely.
4. Puppies
The Cubs have to sign someone at some point. Snell, in many ways, is unlike the rest of their starters because he strikes out a lot and walks instead of relying on excellent defense. Justin Steele is a solid No. 1, but would be better as a No. 2, and Snell, if healthy, is an upgrade over free agent Marcus Stroman. The Cubs are going to make a big move soon, or at least they should. Snell would be absolutely amazing.
5. Parents
The Padres had one of the most disappointing seasons in their history, then lost their best hitter (Juan Soto) and could soon lose their closer (Josh Hader) and Cy Young winner (Snell). Perhaps they will try to cut their losses by retaining Snell. That would require a huge commitment that seems to contradict some of their other moves this winter, but that being said, this team still has three MVP-caliber players: Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. However, the rotation could use help, and Snell knows he can find success here. It was already a great addition, and there’s no reason why it can’t be a great addition in the future.
6. Sailors
Last week’s trade between the Giants and Mariners, which sent Robbie Ray to San Francisco and Mitch Heniger back to Seattle, certainly moved the Giants, long considered a logical destination for Snell, to the bottom of this list. But he could have elevated the Mariners in it. Snell has made no secret of his desire to return home, and the Rays trade freed up future cap space. It’s unclear if Seattle will use him on Snell, but he’s actually a good fit for their home team. Do the Mariners have the will to make it happen?
7. Giants
Does Rey’s arrival eliminate them from the race? Sign Shota Imanga? It’s hard to say, even though all three are left-handers, and the connection between team and player had most putting the Giants at the top of the list before the Rays trade. It may seem less now, but that doesn’t make it impossible.
8. Phyllis
He fits the veteran profile even if he doesn’t fit the old profile of a Phillies fan favorite in old Veterans Stadium. But Snell, Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola will make a formidable trio in October.
9. Red Sox
They recently traded away a left-handed rotation ace (Chris Sale), and Snell could be the guy to replace him, even if the two men have nothing in common other than being darkly talented. It’s unclear if Snell’s healthy personality will be a good fit in Boston, but stranger things have happened.
10. Orioles
Seriously, this is a perfect fit for the Orioles, and maybe even for Snell, who would probably be very welcome here as a veteran ace on a team on the rise. But it’s not clear, based on their recent history, that the Orioles will make a serious push for any high-profile free agent, which puts Baltimore at the bottom of this list.
11. Mets
They have money and you always have to include it. But after losing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, it seems the Mets are choosing to focus on less flashy moves this offseason.
