What will be the rates in March 2024?

The start of 2024 marks a new phase in the economic cycle, with the first cut in interest rates potentially affecting markets at large.

When central banks in developed countries are preparing to lower their interest rates, how much will we, the individuals, find the rates to borrow from our banks?

A gradual decline in interest rates

Given the persistently declining inflation figures, which are now approaching central banks’ targets, They are likely to ease their monetary policies during the year.

But opinions differ on the exact date of this rate cut.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) recently upgraded its inflation outlook, pushing back expectations of lower interest rates.

Similarly, in the United Kingdom, despite a certain slowdown in inflation, it still remains above the central bank’s key rate and thus encourages the latter to maintain its current policy.

What about the European Central Bank (ECB)?

Core inflation in the euro zone is expected to continue to decline, making it increasingly likely that the ECB’s key rates will be eased by the end of the year, according to analysis by Mario Eisenager, bond manager at M&G Investments.

Last November, the figure was still 2.4%, up from 4.3% in September and 10.6% a year earlier.

In these favorable conditions, it is expected that the reduction in lending rates that began in November will intensify in the coming weeks.

In France, inflation experienced a one-year downward trend, falling from 4.2% in October 2024 to 3.6% in November 2024, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).

Maintaining ECB reserves

However, while this drop in inflation is encouraging, ECB President Christine Lagarde continues to be cautious.

There are still some risks in the international and national markets:

• A further rise in energy prices,
• Potential negative consequences of wage increases on inflation,
• Ongoing tensions between the United States and China.

Ultimately, interest rate easing in 2024 could present an opportunity to revive the French-speaking real estate market.

Towards a recovery of the French real estate market?

Despite the uncertainties surrounding the reduction in interest rates, Some banks have already returned to the real estate loan market by offering stable or slightly lower rates..

Since the beginning of the year, many banking institutions have revised their offers downwards to attract more customers.

According to Caroline Arnold, CEO of loan broker Cafpi, this should allow the real estate market to revive.

This increased competition between banks should benefit French families who have put their real estate projects on hold.

A reduction in lending rates will result in greater purchasing power for borrowers and thus promote access to property for them..