(CNN Spanish) — 2024 will be a year full of elections in all five continents. According to the Center for American Progress, more than 2 billion voters in 50 countries will cast ballots in record numbers around the world. Therefore, it is likely that these elections will define the fate of the planet and humanity for the next period.
Paradoxically, the results of those elections may be a demonstration of a threat to the health of democracy that outweighs its strength.
In January, a presidential election in Taiwan could open a new phase of tensions with China. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to head for a rare third term in the world’s largest democracy. And the Russian elections will be a formality, with Vladimir Putin seeking to hold on to power until 2030, even amid mounting military losses in Ukraine. On the other side of the trenches, Volodymyr Zelensky can also measure his military strategy in terms of his popularity and election. After all, there will be elections in the United States in which Donald Trump, beset by controversy – and so far banned from the primary ballots of at least two states – will seek revenge after his defeat in 2020.
“The current global context is marked by mistrust in institutions and misinformation that influences public discourse, added to the advent of new technologies such as regenerative AI, which exacerbate existing threats and reduce barriers to contributing to ecosystems, even as international tensions rise. , including recent wars and a greater willingness by politicians to pit their citizens against other nations for political gain,” Meghan Shahi, director of the Center for American Progress, said in an email.
Donald Trump, Zochital Galvez, Claudia Sheinbaum, Volodymyr Zelensky, Vladimir Putin, and Naib Bukkel, some of the political figures of the 2024 election cycle
Shahi says this year’s global elections will show whether people continue to turn their backs on democratic norms and look for alternatives, “or whether they change course when they see the dangers of the path we’re on.” “There are many risks; the most critical is that we are experiencing a global trend of a sharp decline in democracy as the ideal governance structure in people’s minds, with the acceptance of leaders imposing their own agendas rather than serving the collective interest,” he explained.
Here, a review of the elections that could change the political course of the world in the coming years:
Surrounded by controversies, Donald Trump is going to take his revenge in America.
There will be a series of elections in the United States in 2024: several primary elections during part of the year, defining the candidates of the two main parties – Republicans and Democrats – and the presidential election, in November.
Donald Trump, the favorite in the Republican race, will try to represent his party while facing multiple legal battles, including two federal indictments. Additionally, on January 6, 2021, he is off the primary ballot in the states of Maine and Colorado, following recent decisions regarding his role in the rebellion at the Capitol. These state decisions were appealed by Trump’s legal team.
On the Democratic side, Joe Bien is the current president and has already announced that he will run for re-election, thus becoming the incumbent candidate. However, there are some Democrats who could challenge him in the primary, including Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and author Marianne Williamson. But they still don’t have much support, at least in opinion polls.
Whatever happens, Mexico will have a president
Mexico will elect its first president in June 2024, after Claudia Schönbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez became favorites in the electoral race. Although she is not the first woman to aspire to the presidency of Mexico (six others have done so), she is the first woman to receive unanimous support from the country’s main political parties.
Claudia Sheinbaum will run for the incumbent National Regeneration Movement (Morena) and its allies, Labor (PT) and Green Ecologists of Mexico (PVEM). In opposition, Xóchitl Gálvez will be the candidate of the Broad Front for Mexico, a coalition that brings together the National Action (PAN), Institutional Revolutionary (PRI) and Democratic Revolution (PRD) parties.
This is an open-ended election in which drug trafficking, organized crime and immigration to the US will dominate the political agenda.
Bucale is seeking re-election in El Salvador despite criticism from the opposition
El Salvador will go to the polls on February 4, in which deputy Bukele will go for re-election, despite questions from the opposition, which guarantees that at least five articles of the constitution prohibit a candidate from running for a second. command.
The Supreme Court, with a majority in favor of the government, provided that a president who chooses for re-election must step down six months before the start of a new term, to prevent him from continuing in office. Because of this, Bukele requested leave from November 30 to devote himself to election campaigning.
After four years in office, Buchelle is seeking re-election with a high level of popularity, built primarily around his security policies, according to several polls by Cid Gallup. However, human rights defenders at home and abroad question their methods as they consider them a violation of human rights.
Deputy Bukele will run for re-election in El Salvador.
There is no certainty about the ruling party and opposition candidates in Venezuela
Venezuela will also vote in 2024, although the election date and who the ruling party and opposition candidates will be are yet to be determined.
On the side of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), it was recently Nicolás Maduro himself – in power for 10 years, since the death of Hugo Chávez – who called his candidacy into question, saying in an interview that it was “premature” ” such a definition.
But there is no great certainty on the opposition. In October 2023, Venezuela’s National Primary Commission (CNP) announced María Corina Machado as the winner of the opposition primaries for elections scheduled for 2024.
However, a measure imposed by Venezuela’s Comptroller General has disqualified Machado for not including food bonus payments in his sworn declaration of assets. The opposition leader insists that the disqualification is illegal.
The European Parliament will be the only supranational election
Five years later, the European Parliament will go to the polls between June 6 and 9, 2024, for a new reconfiguration that could change the bloc’s future. According to experts, the nine countries that will vote for their MEPs this year should expect trends towards political fragmentation and difficulties in forming majorities to continue.
Dissatisfaction with traditional parties and with politics in general will also lead, as has happened so far, to the emergence or strengthening of fringe parties, many of which are radical, as is the case with Vox in Spain. It is also possible that, paradoxically, Eurosceptic positions will advance in the next parliament of the European bloc.
In particular, these elections will be an opportunity for immigration and the rise of far-right parties in France, Germany and Belgium, among other countries.
European Parliament.
Russia and Ukraine, elections on both sides of the trench
Russia’s war in Ukraine will be two years old on February 24, and elections in both countries will act as thermometers on both sides that could define the course of the conflict from now on.
In the case of Russia, presidential elections are perhaps the closest thing to a kind of political theater. Putin has no serious challengers, as his most prominent rival, Alexei Navalny, is in a prison about 65 kilometers north of the Arctic Circle, and sympathetic media outlets portray the incumbent as Russia’s indispensable figure. But this spring’s vote will be an important public ritual for the Kremlin leader, securing power until the end of the decade.
2024 was the planned year for presidential elections in Ukraine, although there are still questions about the relevance of holding them amid a conflict about to enter its third year.
In any case, President Volodymyr Zelensky will face shortages of ammunition and equipment, as he tries to navigate world troubles that have added a new conflict — Israel and Hamas, in the Middle East — and divisions among countries. Its Western allies, mainly the US and Europe.
Elections in the world’s largest democracy: India
India will hold the world’s most important elections during April and May.
Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to win a third term with popular but religiously divisive politics. Despite problems related to inflation and purchasing power, Modi enjoys wide support among India’s Hindu majority on the basis of patriotism and a confident foreign policy. Critics counter that India’s founding spirit, once secular and democratic, is lagging behind and minorities feel insecure.
Elections in Taiwan and Conflict in the Straits
The 2024 electoral agenda will open with tense elections, when Taiwan will vote, setting the tone with China for the next four years. If the winner is Lai Ching-tae of the Democratic Progressive Party, formerly a staunch supporter of Taiwan independence, relations with Beijing are expected to deteriorate or remain stagnant. Rival candidates from the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party promise less friction with China, although all three parties oppose the “one country, two systems” doctrine promoted by Beijing.
With reporting by CNN’s Bianca Nobillo, Stephen Collinson, Nathan Hodge, Yvonne Valdes, Marilyn Delcid and Krupskia Ellis
