Volodymyr Zelensky and Emmanuel Macron prepare to sign a bilateral security agreement

Failing to go to Kiev, as had been envisaged, Emmanuel Macron will receive Volodymyr Zelensky at the Elysée. On Friday, the two heads of state will officially sign a bilateral security agreement between France and Ukraine. “This shows that our determination to support Ukraine is as strong as day one.” They say at the Elysée. This has stood the test of time, two years after the start of the Russian invasion. Proponents of kyiv must find a structure to register their action “in time” And convince Russian President Vladimir Putin that time will not be on his side.

Before landing in France, Volodymyr Zelensky is expected in Berlin, where he will sign a similar agreement with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. English Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was the first Western leader to make the commitment in January. All this is formed “an archipelago of expressions that send a signal of support”, We argue at the Elysée. Volodymyr Zelensky would undoubtedly have saved time by negotiating a single text with his partners. But every country has its preferences, its precautions and its resistance. In Europe, the prospect of a breakdown in American aid, a victim of the election campaign and a choice to prioritize dealing with the Chinese threat, is causing concern. “The question is how to help Ukraine in a situation” Where support from the United States will fall, summarizes an international relations expert.

In July, during the NATO summit in Vilnius, the Allies rejected the idea of ​​immediately inviting Ukraine to join the alliance. For France, the guarantee given by the latter would be worth the delivery of all arms to Russia. Too complicated and too dangerous, responded the United States and Germany, who did not intend to run the risk of a spiral. While the alliance still paved the way to membership, notably by creating the NATO Ukraine Council, the G7 countries were committed to formalizing their support. Other countries have also joined this process. Twenty-five contracts could be signed when Volodymyr Zelensky finished his harvest.

Upgrading the Ukrainian military

The contents of the Franco-Ukrainian text will be made public on Friday evening. The two presidents will then hold a press conference. In January, the United Kingdom signed a ten-year agreement formalizing military and non-military aid to Ukraine. The text also says that the two sides will consult each other. Within twenty four hours » In the event of a new Russian invasion. This agreement does not extend to the solidarity provisions provided for in Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. To underline its support, London has confirmed its commitment: 2.3 billion pounds in military aid in 2024.

France’s agreement should also include statistics. Paris wants to respond to his detractors, who complain “unclear” Which is around French delivery. With 8 billion euros in aid to Ukraine, Germany has taken the lead in Europe. Even if it fights in the rankings made by the Kiel Institute, France is far behind. Paris and Berlin eye each other with distrust.

At Elysee, we promise too “To listen to needs” From Ukraine. No new arms transfers should be announced by President Emmanuel Macron, who wants to establish a new logic of direct arms production for Ukraine. Thus, Nexter has committed to supply Ukraine with its entire production of 78 Caesar cannons, should the order be placed… For the moment, the order for only 18 cannons has been formalized. In a few weeks, the air force should also begin basic training for Ukrainian pilots, before they switch to the F-16. The delivery of the French Mirage is not news: the Ukrainian army needs a coherent fleet, we tirelessly repeat.

If military victory seems difficult today, Kiev’s allies want to upgrade the Ukrainian military. By reaching Western military standards, Ukraine should be able to fend off another Russian attack. In the long run, transfer of materials will be facilitated. In the meantime, there is an urgent need to toughen up the troops. Since the start of the war, 10,000 people have been trained by the French military. On Thursday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced the creation of a new joint training and analysis center between NATO and Ukraine in Bydgoszcz, Poland.“This will allow us to share the lessons of the war,”he explained. It will serve as a long-term preparation.