Former President Donald Trump scored a clear victory in the first event of the Republican Party’s presidential primaries, the Iowa caucuses (51%), where he showed his political muscle by nearly 30 points ahead of his two main rivals, Ron DeSantis (21%). ) and Nikki Haley (19%).
The result, somewhat lower than most pollsters had predicted, was so clear from the start that networks like CNN, NBC and Fox showed it only half an hour after the centers where the assemblies were held opened their doors.
The speed of the estimates surprised many, including some caucus attendees who were able to watch on their mobile devices. Trump was declared the winner, even before they cast their ballots.
One factor that may be key: They were the coldest caucuses in history. According to the Iowa Republican Party, a total of 110,000 people participated, a significant drop from the 2016 race, where about 187,000 people voted.
These are some of the conclusions that the first event of the primaries leaves us with for the remainder of the campaign.
1. Trump is the undisputed leader of the Republicans (as the polls say).
Although most political news in the United States revolves around the figure of Trump and many elections have been seen as a kind of referendum on him, this was the first time that he was once again the direct subject of a vote. 2020 and 2021 Attack on the Capitol.
Polls predicted a comfortable victory for him and it turned out that way, so it can be concluded that he solidifies Iowa as the undisputed leader of the Republican Party.
“Trump is not a candidate, he is the leader of a national movement,” he was quoted as saying The New York TimesNewt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House of Representatives who advised Trump.
“No one has understood what it means to face the leader of the movement. That’s why when all their legal problems pile up, they get angry within their movement and their anger grows incredibly.”
2. Neither DeSantis nor Haley are positioning themselves as alternatives to Trump
Who is the best candidate to compete with Donald Trump? None at this point. DeSantis and Haley left Iowa with about 20%.
Starting next week, the candidates will meet in New Hampshire, where it is true that Haley has a definite advantage over the Florida governor in the polls.
Trump also leads the polls there (43% on average, according to Site 538), but with less of an advantage than the former South Carolina governor, who has about 30%.
Those who have a worse outcome expectation are decentis, which do not reach 10%.
3. By contrast, Trump’s judicial problems are not a burden
The former real estate magnate’s legal woes, far from being a burden, are an incentive to rally his followers.
That Donald Trump faces 91 charges in four criminal proceedings has not affected his popularity among his party’s voters.
Trump issues new warning, is there a risk of a repeat of the incident at the Capitol?
On the contrary, he has served to declare himself the victim of a “witch hunt” directed by the administration of Joe Biden and the Democrats.
Now, the question is already before the Supreme Court whether Article 3 of the 14th Amendment bars him from being a candidate in the presidential election.
4. Trump is also the favorite in New Hampshire, though not by as much
Does Donald Trump’s landslide victory in Iowa signal the end of the Republican primaries? Not necessary.
“I don’t know a single analyst who doesn’t expect a Trump win in Iowa,” says Larry Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia.
In this very conservative state, home to many evangelicals, the dignitaries were on friendly ground, says a political scientist, who predicts a “much more interesting” election in New Hampshire.
In this state bordering Canada, which will vote on January 23, Donald Trump’s favorite position is not as clear and Nikki Haley, considered a more moderate option, appears somewhat closer at 14 points, according to a poll compiled by RealClearPolitics.
5. Joe Biden already assumes Trump will be his rival
President Joe Biden has the official endorsement of his party and, barring a last-minute surprise, will be named the Democratic nominee in August. And that despite criticism of the 81-year-old leader’s age. However, we should not forget that the 77-year-old Trump is only four years older than her.
Biden is already anticipating a rematch of his duel with Donald Trump in 2020.
On Monday, he said his predecessor’s victory in Iowa made him the “clear favorite” of Republicans.
For his re-election campaign, Biden has more than $117 million, a significant figure in a country where political victories are driven by checkbooks.
With information from EFE and AFP.
