Trump narrowly leads Biden in a hypothetical rematch for the 2024 election

(CNN) — With the presidential primaries underway and a rematch likely in the 2020 general election, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS shows former President Donald Trump slightly ahead of President Joe Biden in what is shaping up to be a close race nationally. .

The survey shows mixed feelings among voters about the main candidates. Large majorities of Democrats and Republicans say they would be satisfied if their party’s candidate wins a rematch. However, a large minority of voters would prefer to have another option if Biden and Trump are the nominees.

Overall, 49% of registered voters say they would support Trump if the election were held today between the two, while 45% support Biden and 5% say they would vote for someone else. These numbers are similar to CNN polls of the race in the fall, and the demographic dynamics of the race appear to be stable, with wide educational gaps among the most significant demographic segments, and smaller differences by age or race than in other recent presidential elections. election

Support for Biden among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups, such as young voters and black and Hispanic voters, has not increased since the fall: Voters under 35 remain evenly split, with 49% for Biden and 46% for Trump, while blacks and Hispanics Voters favor Biden by 57% and Trump by 35%.

Majorities of voters on both sides of the hypothetical showdown are more likely to say their choice has more to do with Trump than with Biden (68% of Biden supporters say they would vote more against Trump than against Biden) in favor of Biden, while 60% of Trump supporters say they will vote more for him than against Biden).

With a month left in the election year, there is little sign of a shake-up in public opinion about either candidate. Both Trump and Biden are far behind in favorability ratings (59% of Americans have an unfavorable view of Biden and 55% have a negative view of Trump), and many say Biden does not deserve re-election (66%). Americans mostly view Trump’s views and policies as “very extreme” (63%), while most view Biden’s views and policies as “generally traditional” (61%).

The poll concludes that a victory for either candidate would leave a large majority of the nation disaffected and offend a significant portion.

Respondents were asked whether they would prefer the second candidate of the party they are most aligned with if Biden were the Democratic nominee and Trump the Republican. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 43% say they would like to see another Democrat run as an independent if Biden and Trump face off, while 40% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they would. Run as standalone in that scenario.

Polls consistently show that the idea of ​​a third-party or independent presidential candidate is popular, but in reality third-party candidates rarely generate as much support as pre-election polls suggest.

The stretch of party loyalty is reflected in the majority of respondents saying they would be satisfied if their party’s candidate won. About 8 in 10 Republican voters say they would be satisfied or excited about a second Trump presidency, and nearly three-quarters of Democratic voters are equally positive about a second Biden term.

Neither Biden nor Trump is sure of their party’s nomination. Trump’s last major opponent in the Republican Party, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, has a clear lead over Biden among voters nationwide in another hypothetical general election scenario: 52% support Biden to 39%.

63% of Biden’s supporters say they support him more than they oppose him, while 63% of Haley’s supporters say it’s more about opposing Biden than supporting him.

Still, many Americans say they don’t know enough about Haley to have an opinion about her (42%). Those who know him have a more negative than positive opinion: 32% unfavorable compared to 25% favorable.

Haley trails Trump by about 50 points when Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters are asked who they want to win the GOP presidential nomination in 2024 (70% name Trump, 19% Haley, 8% someone else).

Republicans express confidence in Trump’s chances of winning a second term as president: 88% of Republican-leaning voters say he has a realistic chance of winning the presidency if he becomes the nominee, while only 29% believe Biden has a realistic chance of winning. . Nearly 7 in 10 (72%) Republican-leaning voters say the party has a better chance of winning the White House with Trump than anyone else, and 57% say they would be excited if he were president again. And a majority of Republican-leaning voters view Trump as generally mainstream (62%) and not too extreme (37%).

Haley faces pessimism among potential Republican voters about her chances of winning. Despite numerous national polls that put her ahead of Biden in a hypothetical matchup with Trump, only 54% of voters who sympathize with the Republican Party see her as having a realistic chance of winning, and only 16% would be excited about her if she were next. Occupant of the White House.

Among Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, her favorability rating lags far behind Trump’s: 31% have a favorable opinion of Haley, compared to 71% who have a favorable opinion of Trump.

Republican-leaning voters’ concerns about Trump as a candidate remain focused more on his personality and image than his policies. The percentage of those who say their biggest concern is their abrasive or abusive nature has risen from 8% at the end of last summer to 15% today. 8% say they are worried about being attacked or unable to work with Democrats; 8% say their legal situation or possible sentences are their biggest concern; 6% cited his poor public image and widespread dislike of him, and 5% expressed concern that the election would be rigged against him. About 1 in 5, 19%, say they have no concerns about Trump as a candidate.

Although most Democrats believe Biden has a realistic chance of winning a second term (80% of Democratic-leaning voters say so), a majority also believe Trump has a realistic chance of reaching the White House (61%), and a narrow majority affirms. Granted, Biden is not the candidate that gives the Democratic Party the best chance to win. In a new survey, 53% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say their party has a better chance of winning in 2024 when someone else is leading the ticket.

Democrats’ concerns about Biden center around his age. About half, 46%, cite his age when asked to name his biggest concern about him as a presidential candidate, 5% citing his mental competence or acuity, 2% worrying about his ability to handle the job, and 2% worrying about his ability to handle the job. is that they will not survive another term. About 3% say it’s not their age that worries them personally, but age discrimination and the way others perceive their age.

And a new concern about Biden has emerged: 5% say handling the conflict between Israel and Hamas is their top concern, an issue that had not yet emerged when a CNN poll on the issue was conducted in August. Democratic voters under 45 are more likely than older voters to cite this issue as their top concern (9% of under-45s cite Israel, compared to 3% among older Democratic voters).

Polls suggest, however, that the enthusiasm gap that opened up in favor of Republicans in polls last fall may be narrowing. In a new survey, 63% of Republican-leaning voters say they are very motivated to vote in the 2024 presidential election, up from 71% in the fall. Among Democrats, the share of those very motivated to vote has remained about the same: 58% say they are now very motivated, up from 61% in the fall.

Overall, Biden’s approval rating among all adults is 38% approval and 62% disapproval, about the same as he hovered around for much of the past year.

Democrats are more positive about his job (78% approve), but a smaller majority of Democrats say he deserves a second term (69%). Among independents, 66% disapprove of his job and 70% say he is unfit for another term in the White House.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from January 25 to 30 among a random national sample of 1,212 adults from a prospective panel. Surveys were conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results between the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. For the results of the 983 registered voters surveyed, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 points.