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The organization foresees a rise in unemployment but confirms a decline in inflation and a resumption of growth in 2025.
While the government last month revised up its growth forecast for 2024 by 0.4 points, from 1.4% to 1%, the Banque de France revised up its forecast. In its “intermediate projections” published this Tuesday evening, the institute expects GDP growth of just 0.8% this year, down from 0.9% previously. The correction is actually very small and can be explained by “Low growth achieved at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023” As for the difference between the Bercy forecast (1%) and the Banque de France news (0.8%), it comes down to “.margin of uncertainty», comments in an exclusive interview with the Governor of the Banque de France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau. Figaro .
Next year, growth will accelerate, to 1.5%, then 1.7% in 2026, the bank predicts, “Driven by more favorable assumptions on energy prices and financial conditions” Interest rates should indeed fall in the spring as inflation slows. The Banque de France confirms a reduction in price increases in its forecast. The consumer price index, after a rise of 5.7% during last year, will fall to 1.7% in 2025, below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. should stabilize at 2.5% this year before reachingLess salary increases in the short term“This slowdown will help disinflation but could slow the recovery in consumption.
On the employment front, the bank expects a slight increase in the unemployment rate, rising to 7.8% in 2023 from 7.5%.From the end of 2024 to the end of 2025“
