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Taiwan: Why new president Lai Ching-te worries about China

China’s reaction was as expected fierce. A few hours after the publication of the results of Taiwan’s presidential election, which saw the victory of Lai Ching-te – a candidate hated by Beijing, which sees him as a separatist – the country declared that it will not tolerate ” separatist activity on the island. Responsible for relations with Taiwan A spokesman for the office also said the vote “will not impede the inevitable trend of reunification with China.” The statements are consistent with denials that the man inspires in the Chinese Communist Party, for whom “reunification” with the tiny territory, through negotiations or by force, is a fundamental objective. is

China thus invited Taiwan to “make the right choice” during this election. It has also stepped up its intimidation efforts in recent days: Five Chinese balloons crossed the center line of the strait on Thursday, according to Taiwan’s defense ministry, which also saw ten aircraft and six warships.

These threats were not enough. With just 40% of the vote, Lai Ching-te was elected president of Taiwan on Saturday. He will succeed Tsai Ing-wen, of whom he was vice-president for many years, in May. The candidate of the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) is ahead of his main rival, 66-year-old Hou Yue-ih, who has favored reconciliation with Beijing. “I congratulate Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim (His running mate) for his election, hoping that he will not disappoint the expectations of the Taiwanese people,” the latter responded, coming in second with slightly more than 30% of the vote.

Lai Ching-te for his part congratulated his voters for “successfully resisting the efforts of external factors to influence this election”. “We are determined to protect Taiwan from China’s constant threats and intimidation,” he assured cheering supporters waving red and green flags.

In favor of the status quo

The 64-year-old entered politics in the 1990s, particularly in the face of military pressure from China, at a time when Taiwan was opening up to democracy. A doctor by training, he graduated from Harvard, then climbed the political ladder one after the other: first deputy, then mayor, he became prime minister of Tsai Ing-wen in 2016. At this time he stood before Parliament for comments. It earned the enmity of Beijing. “I am a practical worker for freedom,” he said later.

Statements that he has never denied, even if his position has since softened. Thus Lai Ching-te pledged “unwavering” support for maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait during the campaign. In other words, neither independence nor attachment to China.

These announcements “reflect a fairly measured position, hopeful (that there will be no nasty surprises)”, suggests Mathieu Duchatel, director of the Asia program at the Institut Montaigne, for whom Lai Ching-te “wants to reassure everyone”. “But the Chinese side has very strong doubts about his deep convictions, seeing him as pro-independence,” the researcher adds.

video. Taiwan’s presidential election: Lai Ching-te, China-worried pollster favorite

Beijing thus warned before the election that it represented a “serious danger”, according to Lai Ching-te. Chinese authorities described him as a “real troublemaker” in August after a visit to the United States.

His election to the presidency reinforces the fear of conflict, when the situation is already tense. In mid-September, Taiwanese authorities spotted nearly a hundred Chinese aircraft and nine ships around the island. A maneuver that constituted a “record in recent (period)”, supported Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense by condemning “persistent military harassment” from China.

Caution

China also assured on Saturday that it would “strongly oppose foreign interference”. A threat directed against the United States, Taiwan’s ally, and which had promised to support it in the event of an invasion.

Washington, for its part, congratulated Lai Ching-te on her victory, as well as “the Taiwanese people for once again demonstrating the strength of their solid democratic system and electoral process.” An American delegation is now expected to arrive on the island in the coming days.

In announcing the “informal” trip on Thursday, a senior American official (whose name was not disclosed) warned: “It would be provocative for Beijing to respond (to the election result) with more military pressure or coercive measures.”

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