Neither Trump nor Biden: What will voters do who (almost certainly) don’t want either candidate?

The “Super Tuesday” of primary elections in the United States paved the way for what seems inevitable: the re-enactment of the presidential duel between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump.

A rare election battle between a sitting president and a previous one, who is running for office in the 2020 elections and is rejected by a majority of the American electorate.

The current president, 81, and Trump, 77, both have very low popularity ratings.

56% of eligible voters believe Trump should not run again, while 70% say the same about Biden, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

54% have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, and that rises to 59% in the case of Biden, according to data released in a survey late last week. The New York Times and Siena College.

Biden’s rejection is the biggest innovation compared to the election four years ago, when the Democrat had a better image. At that time, only 42% had a negative opinion of him.

Although there is a long way to go until Nov. 5, polls show an advantage for Trump, who maintains disapproval levels similar to 2020.

Given these numbers, what the voters decide to do, as it is called in English, will be key Double hatersie those who dislike one as much as the other.

What will the moderate Republicans who supported it do? Nikki HaleyAs of this Wednesday, was Trump the only opponent left in the primaries?

And Democrats who think Biden is too old or who criticize his policy of supporting Israel in Gaza?

What will be the role of the third option?

Will many voters stay home after 2020’s record turnout?

Mitchell, 64, is one of the 70 million people who are part of Independence, the country’s largest political group.

For years she was registered with the Republican Party, but Trump’s victory in 2016 changed her mind.

“Trump is not a Republican. He doesn’t have the same values ​​as a typical Republican,” the consultant, who lives in Miami Beach, told BBC Mundo.

Eight years ago, Mitchell decided to check the “no party affiliation” box on Florida’s voter registration application and now feels more empowered when making political decisions.

In 2020 he voted for Biden, but he doesn’t want to do it again this year, although he doesn’t rule it out. “I’ll vote for the least bad”he says with resignation.

in between Double hatersAccording to the poll, Biden wins 45% to 33% The New York Times/Sina College. Voters who reject both virtual candidates make up 19% of the survey, indicating their importance.

For Mitchell, a significant portion of the electorate who do not affiliate with either of the two major parties, the alternatives are not only unattractive but also contrary to his most basic political beliefs.

In 2023, the 43% people are eligible to vote They called themselves “Independent Voters”.is at an all-time high since 2014, according to a Gallup poll.

They are voters who do not feel represented by either of the two main parties, who question the way candidates are chosen and who prefer to choose one of the best options at the last minute.

To these key voters we have to add on occasion engaged and convinced Democrats and Republicans who may be less so now given how unattractive their candidates are to them.

There are more and more people eligible to vote who do not prefer the Republican or Democratic Party. politics

More than half of Democrats (55%) believe that traditional political parties and politicians do not care about the people. That number rises to 70% among Republican voters and 78% among independents, according to Reuters/Ipsos.

“We are angry with Democrats and Republicans. They don’t solve people’s problems, they just shout at each other,” John Opdyke, president of Open Primaries, an organization that seeks to enable “non-partisan” participation in primaries, tells BBC Mundo.

And almost certain contenders for positions in the White House don’t seem to be the best options for getting the votes of those with little faith. Two out of three voters say they are tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections and want someone new.

In Biden’s case, the criticism that recurs, especially among independents, is that he is too old for a new mandate and doesn’t know how to manage an inflation-ridden economy well, despite good macroeconomic numbers.

They see Trump as a candidate unable to guarantee predictability in politics, they fear his ways and his policies, and many voters are swayed by the criminal charges against him.

Even independents question it The manner in which the candidates are selected. “There’s really no room for someone from the center to be president in the system we have,” Mitchell says.

“There is no real competition when it comes to electing candidates in this country. And if there is no competition, is there democracy?” asks OPDK.

For Biden and Trump, it will be important, above all, to find ways to attract those “non-partisan” voters who are registered to vote and who, in most cases, want to participate in the election despite being highly critical of the party. and the electoral system. In the United States.

“It is difficult to classify independents” writes Thom Reilly, author of independent voter (Independent Voter). “Because they, according to their own form of identity, resist the usual categories of political classification.”

“A lot of people prefer the independent label but feel more connected to one party,” political scientist Michael Hanmer, director of the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland, explained to BBC Mundo.

The probability of a candidate not representing the two major parties winning the presidency of the United States is almost zero.

But in a close fight that could be defined by a few thousand votes in some key states, that support for a third way could be crucial.

Movement is expected No labels (Unlabeled) announce in a few days if it presents a candidate which opens the door to a third option.

Right now he is in the race Robert Kennedy JrNephew of President John F. Kennedy and son of Robert F. Kennedy.

“If we had the popular vote, an independent would have had a chance. But, as long as the Electoral College vote exists, that’s never going to happen,” Mitchell says of the system in which the winner in each state takes all the votes. State. Electoral College. The number depends on the population living in each state: California is the one that distributes the most with 55.

In 1992, Ross Parrott He received 18% of the vote in 1992 as one of the most unlikely candidates (about 20 million endorsements), compared to 37% George H. Bush and 43% Bill Clinton.

Although an independent candidate has never won the White House, Barack Obama In 2008, he defeated Republican John McCain, thanks in part to large support from independents. New York Magazine He ironically called him “the first independent president”.

“A candidate who wins over people who do not identify strongly with either party will have a huge advantage,” says political scientist Michael Hanmer. Major Disputed States.

“I want to see candidates who make ends meet,” Opdyke says. “With elections expected to be close, it is imperative that each party nominates a candidate capable of attracting independent voters.”

But barring a big surprise, the candidates seem to be already decided.

And they have to trap independents and this Double hatersIncluding some Democrats and Republicans.

Trump won those voters in 2016 Hillary Clintonwhose resentment grew during the campaign.

In 2020, Biden, who was the popular Barack Obama’s vice president for eight years, took advantage of then-President Trump’s low popularity.

That rejection of Republicans continues. What has changed now is that the Bidens have evolved.

For this reason and if, as expected, Biden v. Trump, many Americans will vote for the candidate they consider “least bad” in November.

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