Maduro’s letter on immigration could influence US elections, not just Venezuela’s (analysis)

(CNN) — Venezuelan voters must go to the polls to elect a president this year, but they don’t know when the election will be held… or even if it will be held.

Voters don’t even know who the candidates will be, except for the current president, socialist Nicolas Maduro, who has made it clear he wants to stay in power for a third consecutive term.

In many ways, this election year is starting to look as chaotic as 2018, when the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) moved the event from the traditional month of December to April that year, and then moved it again, to May. .

But the difference with 2018 is that what happens in a South American country’s presidential election this year can affect others thousands of kilometers away.

Less than four months ago, Venezuela signed an agreement with the United States to hold free and fair elections, a move aimed at thawing relations between the two countries. The agreement was crucial for US President Joe Biden because Venezuela’s cooperation is needed to help control illegal immigration, which is emerging as a key issue in the 2024 US election.

The problem for Biden is that that agreement now seems irrevocably broken.

hold power

Maduro, a 61-year-old former bus driver who was appointed president by Hugo Chavez to succeed him when the late strongman discovered he was terminally ill, has been in power since 2013 and is not ready to relinquish it.

Publicly, Maduro has insisted that elections will be held this year.

“Rain, shine or lightning, this year we are going to the 31st election. There will be presidential elections in Venezuela,” he told his PSUV supporters at a recent rally. “And I know it, I see it, once again, rain, shine or lightning… the people, the Bolivarian people, the Chavista people, are going to win again! Let’s go together,” Maduro said.

But his regime seems to be doing all it can to delay the elections and neutralize the opposition using the long and powerful arm of the state which it completely controls.

Venezuela’s Supreme Court of Justice (the country’s highest court, packed with government loyalists) recently barred main opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado from running for president. The court’s decision, based on alleged financial irregularities since Machado was a member of the National Assembly, also bars him from holding any office in Venezuela for 15 years.

Maria Corina Machado, former deputy and opposition leader, on July 7, 2023, in Caracas, Venezuela. Credit: Gabby Ora/Bloomberg/Getty Images

In an interview with CNN, Machado denied the allegations and said she and her campaign have been in the spotlight for years.

His party, “Vente Venezuela,” recently said three of its campaign managers had been detained by the government. Machado claims the regime has banned Venezuelan media from interviewing or reporting on him.

He also claims that government loyalists have not only intimidated campaign workers, but also gone after those who provide them with services, including rallies and owners of audio equipment for car rental companies, hotel operators and commercial airlines.

“As they know they don’t have the vote, they stay in power through weapons, judicial rulings and persecution. This is the only thing left for Maduro. Maduro is a repressive candidate and he wants to force and beat. ( “He is a playing a dirty game,” Machado said, vowing to stay in the race. “The threats against us are brutal. These people have no fear, but they will not derail our plans,” Machado said.
Maduro has defended the court ruling against Machado, suggesting it defies US pressure and shows that no one is “above the law”.

“Despite threats and blackmail from the American empire, Venezuelan institutions have worked,” he said in Caracas on Jan. 29 while celebrating the verdict.

The opposition has seen this film before. Leopoldo López, who has challenged Maduro’s rule for the past decade, was arrested in 2014 after weeks of social unrest and sentenced to nearly 14 years in prison the following year for inciting anti-government protests. He spent five years behind bars and several months under house arrest before fleeing to Madrid, Spain in 2020.

Americas Quarterly magazine editor-in-chief Brian Winter says that if Venezuela holds presidential elections this year, there is “almost zero chance” they will be free or fair.

“Maduro wants to hold elections that look fair enough to improve his international image without risking his biggest nightmare, which is losing power. That’s why he’s running out of dates and trying to subdue the main opposition candidate,” Shiala said.

Venezuelan immigrants cross the Rio Grande River into the U.S. on January 8, 2024, in Eagle Pass, Texas. Border Patrol walks toward the transit center. Credit: John Moore/Getty Images

A collision course with Biden

By barring Machado from running for office, Venezuela is violating an agreement the regime made with the United States. In October, the Biden administration lifted sweeping economic sanctions targeting Venezuela’s mining and oil industries in support of an agreement reached between Maduro and the opposition in Barbados to hold free and fair elections in 2024.

According to the opposition and the United States, the ban on Machado from running in the elections amounts to a repudiation of the agreement. The US State Department was quick to reimpose sanctions on Venezuela, but so far it has only done so on its gold fields.

“In response to the undemocratic actions of Maduro’s representatives, the United States has revoked sanctions relief for Venezuela’s gold sector. Relief for Venezuela’s oil and gas sectors will be renewed in April only if Maduro’s representatives fulfill their commitments,” said on Twitter US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

But Maduro and his allies know they have Biden between a rock and a hard place when it comes to further action, especially if the United States also holds a presidential election and immigration is once again a critical issue.

During fiscal year 2023, Venezuelans (266,071) were responsible for more encounters with migrants at the US-Mexico border than any other nationality except Mexicans (717,333).

Venezuela has recently cooperated to reduce illegal immigration by allowing repatriation flights to the United States.

Maduro knows this is at least one of two cards (the other being oil) in his favor when negotiating any new sanctions with the United States.

The problem for the Biden administration is that if it appears to go easy on Maduro on the new sanctions, it will be open to criticism that it is weaker or more interested in Venezuelan oil than Venezuelan democracy, America Quarterly’s Winter said.

But if he has a heavy hand, Maduro could be ruthless on immigration.

Venezuelan Vice President Delsey Rodriguez recently said her country would cancel repatriation flights for Venezuelan immigrants from the United States if Washington’s “economic aggression” against Caracas escalates.

“Maduro, at some level, has part of Biden’s re-election chances in his hands. I don’t want to overestimate it, but it’s real. And there’s a possibility that Maduro will shut down if the Biden administration pushes hard on the sanctions issue. Biden’s All cooperation in a way that could hurt his chances of re-election,” Winter said.

According to Winter, that would explain why the State Department decided to lift sanctions only in Venezuela’s gold sector, not the oil and gas sector.

“It’s not just Venezuelan democracy that’s at stake here. It’s also immigration and oil during an election year in the United States. The Maduro dictatorship has repeatedly proven to be shrewd negotiators, aware of their influence,” Winter said.