Is there a “Plan B”?: Options in the event that Trump or Biden are not their party’s nominees for election

In less than 9 months, American voters will go to the polls to elect the president who will govern the nation’s destiny for the next four years.

And it is very possible that this election will face the same candidates who ran for the presidency in 2020, who will also be. Oldest in US history.

If the candidacies of Biden and Donald Trump are not inevitable, both parties face growing internal and external calls to consider an alternative plan, or Plan B, if their eventual nominees continue their campaigns for reasons of age or, in the case of Republicans, even legal reasons. is or assumes the presidency.

Despite presiding over a period of post-pandemic economic recovery that has exceeded all expectations and an unprecedented full employment situation, President Joe Biden faces questions about his ability based on his advanced age.

The fact that Biden will be 86 when he leaves the presidency in 2028 and the report by Republican special counsel Robert Hurr, who described the president as “a well-intentioned old man with a failing memory” and “diminished faculties” without medical training. That has raised a new wave of concern about Biden’s ability to weather the election campaign and ultimately serve four more years as president.

For his part, former President Donald Trump, who is not much younger than Biden (he will be 82 when he leaves office in 2028), often confuses people and places, as he recently did in New Hampshire. His opponent in the Republican primary, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, along with former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi.

Trump also faces multiple lawsuits at the federal and state levels, totaling 91 criminal charges, that would not only distract him from campaigning for the presidency, but could also turn him into a convicted felon and land him in prison. Elections will be held on November 4.

for this, Unlike Biden for the Democratic Party, Trump represents a double threat to his party.

In theory, Biden could be defeated in the Democratic primary, but that remote possibility seems increasingly remote given the little traction his rivals have gained in that race: Marianne Williamson, who suspended her campaign on Wednesday, and Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips. . , who despite funding the campaign well through his personal fortune, came in an embarrassing third place in the South Carolina Democratic primary.

Failure to defeat Biden in his party’s primaries leaves Democrats with the only option of voluntarily withdrawing or being unable to continue his campaign for some other reason, which will become more complicated as time passes. Electoral logistics for the Democratic Party.

The most discussed scenario is that Biden continues the Democratic primary campaign, finishes as the undisputed winner, and then announces that he will not accept the nomination, freeing his delegates to support another candidate and with whom The President can practically appoint his successor by hand..

In this way, Biden can be portrayed as the savior of democracy and the bridge to a new generation of leaders by defeating Trump in 2020, while the new candidate can base his campaign on the economic victory of Biden’s government. Face questions about his age.

Trump’s options are similar to those facing President Biden, but the scenarios that would trigger them are more numerous.

Unlike Biden, Trump faces a rival with some popularity in the Republican Party, Haley, who, although he has not proven to have enough support within the base to wrest the presidential nomination from him, could embody a viable alternative to the former president. If he is unable to continue his campaign, due to health or legal reasons.

Trump, who like Biden seems on track to easily win his party’s presidential nomination (which he would do for a third consecutive term), could theoretically withdraw voluntarily from the race, an option that is hard to seriously consider at this point. .

Legal issues can arise during elections or even before voting, which will not only distract you from campaigning, but They will also seriously affect his chances of winning the presidency, according to some polls..

The most recent of those, conducted by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist and published last week, shows the two candidates virtually tied with 48% support for Biden and 47% for Trump, but also says If the former president was criminally convicted. Of the crimes he is accused of, 51% of those surveyed would vote for Biden, while only 45% would support Trump.

The poll, which was conducted between Jan. 29 and Feb. 1 and interviewed 1,441 registered voters by phone, text message and online, has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.